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This week has seen stock markets the world over trade fresh multi-year and even all-time record highs. Waves of positive data have helped investor sentiment reach fever pitch in New York, Tokyo, Frankfurt and London, with indices in the latter three markets hitting their highest levels ever on Friday.
However, for traders in London, there’s one event next week that will take precedent above all others. The mere announcement of the UK’s snap general election sent markets across the globe into triple- digit swings. Now the time has come to see if Theresa May made the right move in calling it.
A landslide Conservative victory has widely been seen as the precursor for a ‘Hard Brexit’, removing the UK from the European Single Market (ESM) in order to limit the freedom of movement of EU citizens. This would likely mean sectors like Housebuilding and Travel are to be potentially negatively affected, whilst those in the Banking sector are counting on a good Brexit deal to keep London thriving as a global business hub.
The crucial factor for the UK 100 , the UK’s blue chip index, will be the size of the parliamentary majority the party attain in a victory. Markets widely believe that an increased Tory majority would see PM Theresa May face less parliamentary opposition towards her government’s Brexit negotiations. Any indication that this would be the case has seen Pound Sterling strengthen to the detriment of the index’s majority foreign earning contingent.
On the other hand, this suggests that a lesser than expected Conservative majority, or even a surprise Labour victory, could see Pound Sterling sell off, helping the UK 100 to a fresh record high.
In fact, we saw a similar scenario this week when YouGov’s election poll forecast the possibility of a hung parliament. As Labour reduced the Conservative lead to three points, Sterling weakened to its lowest level in a month against the US dollar, and traded 6-week lows against the Euro. This subsequently helped the index to a record high as a result on Wednesday morning.
Could a victory for the opposition party, whose manifesto focuses on clamping down on tax avoidance and corporation tax, in fact result in a new record level for the country’s blue-chip index?
Don’t forget, there’s more than just an election coming on Thursday, as if there wasn’t already enough going on. Alongside the UK’s big day, President Draghi and the ECB meet in Estonia to discuss monetary policy while ex-FBI director Comey is set to publicly testify in front of the Senate Intelligence Committee.
The question I know ask you is, “are you prepared?” Are you sufficiently hedged should one of these critical market events throw up a major surprise? Do you know what sectors and stocks could show significant movement of the back of these? How are you going to be receiving the news as these events unfold? Timing is everything. Be ready and be prepared by signing up to receive our award-winning research here. Unlike the politicians, you’ve got nothing to lose!
Avin Nirula, Trader, 2 June
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