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With third quarter earnings season now in full swing, both in Europe and the US, it is the turn of the UK Banks to release their figures next week, with Lloyds reporting Wednesday, Barclays on Thursday and rounded off by RBS on Friday. Eagerly awaited by markets and investors, these results will give the first insight into the impact of Britain’s vote to leave the EU in June. The initial shock has since been overridden by a sense of pleasant surprise for many, with stock markets enjoying an impressive rebound from the depths of the Brexit lull.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England slashed interest rates in the hoping to incentivise economic growth and prompt Britain’s financial institutions to give to would-be borrowers more freely. Will the move by Carney et al. prove to have made a lasting impact on the margins of the UK’s lenders? What will the overall impact of the surprise vote to leave be for this cornerstone of the UK economy?
Perhaps it’s best to look across the pond to give an insight into what is in store next week.
Already we’ve seen a host of US financial institutions reporting Q3 earnings. Internationally focused Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan beat forecasts by an overwhelming margin, whilst even the scandal-ridden Wells Fargo managed to weather the storm, posting an earnings beat. Most recently Thursday saw Bank of New York Mellon’s earnings per share reported over 20% higher than forecasts, causing shares to rise a subsequent 2% just in pre-market movement.
While these impressive performances may have been from banks over 2000 miles away, they could provide the first indication of how next week will pan out. Only time will tell.
Taking the focus away from banks, the topic that has featured most heavily on the front pages of new outlets of late has been the performance of the Pound Sterling and the subsequent strong showing from the UK 100 . Having reached all-time highs last week, the focus now shifts to what impact further movements in the value of the Pound may have on UK companies.
Last quarter, all three major pharmaceutical companies listed on the UK 100 enjoyed share price rallies of over 3% following their earnings releases, all of whom cited currency advantages as a major factor for positive earnings performances. With sterling having fallen further against its European and North American peers, what’s in store for these UK Index heavyweights this quarter?
Earnings season may also be a time for bargain hunters to rejoice, as companies currently enduring slumps reveal how they fared over the Summer period. Banks, mentioned earlier, are trading well below pre-Brexit highs. Members of the UK Airline sector have also fallen upon hard times of late, a combination of negative FX effects and rising oil prices hampering the likes of EasyJet and IAG.
Will earnings from one of the UK 100 ’s airlines released next week provide the impetus for their shares to head towards 2016 highs? What does the future hold for Sterling as Britain prepares to leave the EU?
Here at Accendo, our research keep you up to date with the latest earnings releases from major UK companies reporting over the coming weeks to make sure you’re in pole position to find your ideal trade. Also keep an eye out for our publication on Sunday covering Sterling’s recent performance and City forecasts, as well as providing a range of FX opportunities suitable for you. Why not take a trial and gain an insight into what the future may hold for Sterling!
Adam Vettese, Trader, 21 October
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