What’s coming up in June?

I think there’s some vote happening or something. Something to do with immigration?

And while that’s probably going to keep markets distracted in June, it might be a good time to do a Jo Moore (famed for sending an opportunistic email on Sept 12^th 2001) and ‘get anything out we want to bury.’ I must state that We is neither me nor Accendo Markets, but it might be a central bank or two! Maybe even the odd corporation.

So, what’s coming up in June? First of all we’ve got the US Fed on the 15^th – 8 days before the UK’s EU referendum vote. Now, a US rate hike could be seen as both good and bad news. It’s good news because it’s necessary to put the brakes on unsustainable runaway growth and inflation, and so could indicate a positive outlook for the US and global economy (that is unless everyone’s regressed to looking at Communist China as a global growth/evolution barometer).

It’s bad news if the Fed is just doing it to show us who’s boss. And that, my friends, is (unfortunately) what the reason will be if it does go ahead and hike in June. But what better time to show markets who’s boss than a time when everyone else is running around screaming and stockpiling baked beans, catapults and wellington boots. By that I mean voting in the EU referendum, obviously.

God only knows what the Bank of England will be up to on 16 June, but then no one will care because they’ll all be trying to work out whether to vote with their emotions (I like my bananas bent, thank you very much / foreigners out, grrr!) or with reason (frankly, why vote for more uncertainty at this particular point in time?). And how many clicks do you think the BoE’s Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions will get on the 19^th? None, that’s how many!

The Bank of Japan is also looking forward to publishing whatever it wants on 16 June. What’ll it be –another rate cut? QQQE? Let’s be honest – it could be anything. You’ll see little through the angry haze of Brexit panic. As for the Norwegians, the Norges Bank is conveniently convening on the 23^rd itself! What nasties are they going to offload onto the markets?! No one minds at the best of times It’s Norway, but what if it’s something really bad? Yeah, you’re right, it’s still Norway.

Corporates-wise, look out for retail behemoth Tesco (TSCO)’s Q1 2017 earnings release on the big day itself. While most won’t even realise it’s happened, you, having absorbed beforehand the essential message from this post, will be ready to act on the outcome – or even ahead of it. And you’ll probably do better than anyone who tries to trade the Brexit vote itself!

So what’s coming up in June is more than the storm in an oversized coffee mug that is the UK’s EU referendum. It’s business as usual for the rest of the world. No celebratory bank holiday for everyone else while we in the UK tick a couple of boxes at our nearest old peoples’ home-turned-polling station. Be aware of what may sneak out amid the wailing and gnashing of teeth.

Augustin Eden, Research Analyst (19 may)