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Non-farm Payrolls? Non-event payrolls more like. We already have all the information we need to make predictions about US monetary policy. Janet Yellen already yelled something along the lines of this at her hawkish upstarts last week: “While any future rate hikes remain data dependent, what’s going on in the rest of the world is important.”
The monthly US jobs report has seen the non-farms print average 200K for the past god knows how long. It is known to be volatile and its monthly range is so high that only a reading below 100K or above 300K would surprise. What’s more, it’s good news whatever happens: less than 100K, the attention comes back to the US economy and the outlook is dovish. Above 300K and the attention stays on the wider global economy… and the outlook remains dovish, just like Janet said.
One swallow does not a summer make? Put it this way: One robin in the middle of Summer is hardly the harbinger of winter. The only thing non-farms is useful for these days is beefing up your twitter profile (#nfpguesses). Oh, and the traditional office sweepstake!
Augustin Eden, Research Analyst
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