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Wall Street rally hangs in the balance

Another week, another record for Wall Street.

The world’s most followed stock market indices once again notched record closing highs this week, with the Dow Jones Industrials Index cruising past 24,000 for the very first time.

But why has the 30-stock index waited until this week to move sharply higher, and could this latest leg higher open the door to a much bigger move?

The primary driver for this week’s move is, once again, the tax reform plan proposed by the Trump administration. However, far from being a largely speculative and light on rhetoric gesture, this week finally puts some meat on the bones.

Republican Senators are poised to vote on the President’s key economic policy as soon as tonight, which, if passed, could drastically reduce the corporate tax rate facing American companies as well as offering a temporary amnesty to bring foreign profits back to the US shore.

If passed, the reform would mark the first time a US President has managed to pass a major change to taxes since the Reagan administration in the 80s, and would finally see Trump win a legislative victory. Could the index be propelled even higher should it pass over the weekend?

However, delays have dampened investor sentiment over the past 24 hours. With only a slim majority in the Senate, there are widespread concerns that the rushed bill will be voted down. What would that mean for the immense stock market rally of 2017?

Next week, the eagerly awaited November US Jobs report, including the influential Non-Farm Payrolls print, is released. The data dump is a major influence on sentiment at the Federal Reserve, as such providing a great bearing on whether the central bank will raise interest rates later this month.

While a rate hike is being all but priced in, might a weak release see expectations of the Fed meeting their 2017 rate hike target be jeopardised?

But it’s not just domestic factors that could sharply drive Wall Street higher or lower.

This week saw North Korea regime return to the scene once again, launching their most advanced  and powerful missile to date into the Sea of Japan. The intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, reached a height of 2,500 miles, over twice the height of the international space station, before successfully re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere, landing almost 600 miles from its launch site and within just 130 miles of Japan’s coast. But what does this mean for the rest of the world?

This missile launch finally proved that North Korea has the firepower to hit the US mainland and subsequently sparked a fierce response from the Trump administration.

Soft threats of war and annihilation followed, with even some of the less hawkish members of Trump’s cabinet saying that further provoction could lead to conflict.


Closer to home, embattled outsourcer Carillion releases a trading statement on Wednesday just weeks after issuing its third profits warning of 2017.

Its share price has fallen by 75% since its first warning back in June, with the latest warning to investors coming on 17 November.

Although its only been a fortnight since they last updated the market, could this latest release finally provide some respite for Carillion’s shares? Or will it be more of the same for the stock that is one of the worst performing on the London Stock Exchange this year?

Our research team will be breaking down the numbers in the all-important release, sending the crucial information to clients before the market opens. You can receive this same breakdown on Wednesday morning, and much more, by signing up here to receive our awardwinning research offering.


David Paradis, Trader, 1 December


 

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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