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US Macro Data in focus – FX, The week ahead, Monday 16 May

US Macro Data
Macro observations

US Dollar Basket (-)

The USD capped another winning week with a strong breakout from its 5-week falling channel and the 50-day MA. Currently consolidating, the strong performance of late has appeared unsupported by fundamentals – those comprising a string of disappointing (ergo rate hike negative) US macro data. With risk assets also outperforming, tracking the oil price higher, USD strength and the same in precious metals appear to be borne out of speculation rather than safe haven seeking, with Gold doing well on momentum and the USD basket (DX) benefiting from bottom picking.

Looking ahead this week, we have some interesting European and US macro data prints that could serve to bring some sought after fundamental support – namely US CPI on Tuesday and the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. The Euro may react to a double whammy of inflation data from the Eurozone on Wednesday and Germany on Friday, while GBP looks set to play 3rd wheel this week after last Thursday’s BoE /Brexit fun & games.

Key data this week (Sign up here to get our daily live macro-calendar)

Monday 16 May

UK Economic Announcements
Nothing of note

Intl Economic Announcements
13:30  Empire Manufacturing (US)
15:00  NAHB Housing Market Index (US)

Tuesday 17 May

UK Economic Announcements
09:30    Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, Retail Price Index

Intl Economic Announcements
09:30    Balance of Trade (EU)
13:30     Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts, Building Permits (US)
14:15      Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production (US)

Wednesday 18 May

UK Economic Announcements
09:30    Claimant Count Rate

Intl Economic Announcements
10:00    Consumer Price Index (EU)
12:00    MBA Mortgage Applications (US)
15:30    Crude Oil Inventories (US)
19:00    FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US)

Thursday 19 May

UK Economic Announcements
09:30    Retail Sales

Intl Economic Announcements
13:30    Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims (US)

Friday 20 May

Intl Economic Announcements
07:00    Producer Price Index (GER)
15:00    Existing Home Sales (US)

GBP/USD (‘Cable’)

GBP/USD (daily)
GBPUSD daily (-)

GBP/USD (hourly)
GBPUSD hourly (-)

Technicals (based on daily price data unless otherwise stated)

  • Holding around the 50-day MA after breaking below 5-week rising lows
  • Daily RSI breakdown through 2016 rising lows

GBP/EUR

GBP/EUR (daily)
GBPEUR daily (-)

GBP/EUR (hourly)

GBPEUR hourly (-)

Technicals (based on daily price data unless otherwise stated)

  • Again, we’re holding up around the 50-day MA
  • Stochastics made the bullish cross
  • Momentum now neutral (from negative)
  • 20-day MA now the major hurdle with the 100-day not far above

EUR/USD

EUR/USD (daily)
EURUSD daily (-)

EUR/USD (4-hours)
EURUSD hourly (-)

Technicals (based on daily price data unless otherwise stated)

  • Uptrend from Dec 2015 still intact
  • Stochastics oversold
  • RSI maintaining rising support since Nov 2015
  • MACD testing  6.5mth rising lows

Until next week, Take Care!

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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