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US Fed speeches to drive currencies this week

US Macro Data

Accendo FX – Weekly Currency Newsletter, 23 – 27 May 2016

Macro observations

US Dollar Basket (-)

The USD Basket (DX) continues to show strength as markets start pricing in a June US interest rate hike. Still the currency in focus this week, we’re light on US data but heavy on fed speeches. Data-wise, PMI and New Home Sales (and related prints) present a wider picture than Thursday’s Jobless Claims – and really, no one cares about the employment tranche of the data because employment is seen as being right where the Fed wants it.

Speech-wise, Bullard is set to talk today (Monday), Kashkari is due to discuss energy on Wednesday and Janet Yellen rounds off the week on Friday. Expect markets to jump on many a word from all three.

GBP is recovering this morning after suffering at the hands of some interesting BoE commentary last Friday. We don’t see it as having been anything special, however. At the last ‘Super Thursday’ data deluge, Mark Carney suggested that about 50% of the GBP’s 9% fall since Nov 2015 could be attributed to Brexit risks. So for Kristin Forbes to come out Friday and say that not all the recent macro data disappointments are Brexit related fits perfectly well within the Super Thursday outlook. Was the GBP sell-off overdone then?

Suffice to say the Euro remains a relative slave to both the USD and GBP.


Key data this week (Sign up here to get our daily live macro-calendar)

Monday 23 May

UK Economic Announcements
Nothing of note

Intl Economic Announcements
14:45   Manufacturing PMI (US)
15:00   Consumer Confidence (EU)

Tuesday 24 May

UK Economic Announcements
00:05   Consumer Confidence
09:30   Mortgage Lending Figures, PSNB

Intl Economic Announcements
07:00   GDP (GER)
10:00   ZEW Survey (GER)
13:30   Durable Goods Orders (US)
15:00   New Home Sales (US)

Wednesday 25 May

UK Economic Announcements
11:00   CBI Distributive Trades Surveys

Intl Economic Announcements
07:00   Consumer Confidence (GER)
09:00   IFO data (GER)
12:00   MBA Mortgage Applications (US)
14:00   House Price Index (US)
15:30   Crude Oil Inventories (US)

Thursday 26 May

UK Economic Announcements
09:30   Preliminary GDP, Index of Services

Intl Economic Announcements
07:00   Import Price Index (GER)
13:30   Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims (US)
15:00   Pending Home Sales (US)

Friday 27 May

Intl Economic Announcements
13:30   Preliminary GDP (US)
15:00   Uni. of Michigan Sentiment (US)


 

GBP/USD (‘Cable’)

GBP/USD (daily)
GBPUSD daily (-)

GBP/USD (hourly)
GBPUSD hourly (-)

Technicals (based on daily price data unless otherwise stated)

  • A bounce off the 20-day moving average is encouraging for bulls targeting the 200-day moving average
  • The pair is currently in an area of resistance in the upper half of a tight range straddling the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
  • The 1.4525 level remains a key watch level – a decisive break upwards seen as bullish.
  • A break of the 10-day trend of rising lows (hourly chart) could see the pair decline towards the 50-day moving average.

 

GBP/EUR

GBP/EUR (daily)
GBPEUR daily (-)

GBP/EUR (hourly)GBPEUR hourly (-)

Technicals (based on daily price data unless otherwise stated)

  • Bullish bounce up off the neckline of a bullish Head & Shoulders bottom
  • Short term upside possible towards the 200-day moving average
  • Strong intraday bounce out of an area of support

 

EUR/USD

EUR/USD (daily)
EURUSD daily (-)

EUR/USD (4-hours)
EURUSD hourly (-)

Technicals (based on daily price data unless otherwise stated)

  • Downwards pressure remains with the pair well back inside the longer term sideways range
  • Curently consolidating at the 100-day moving average
  • Next potential support level coincides with the 200-day moving average
  • Stochastic indicator is oversold, although has made a bullish cross.

For more information relating to deliverable FX, including how you can get the best rate in the market for currency exchange, give us a call on 0203 030 4500 to speak to a member of our team. We’ll be happy to answer any questions you might have.

Have a great week ahead!

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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