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UK banks to throw UK Index a lifeline?

blogWhile political events may have stolen the headlines this week, first quarter earnings season has moved up a gear in earnest, with a plethora of corporate results on both sides of the pond adding into the melting pot.

However, we ain’t seen nothing yet.

Things really get spicy next week as we have four of the UK’s biggest banking names reporting their Q1 results. What’s more, the timing of the results couldn’t be more crucial.

The UK’s blue-chip UK 100 has been hurt this week by a strong Pound in reaction to the shock election announcement, which saw the index suffer its worst single session since Brexit. While we’ve so far managed to hold above support at 7090 points, a level that hasn’t been breached so far in 2017, the banks – the most important economic barometer for the UK – hold the power to potentially shape the UK Index ‘s future.

Will it be a bounce back to mid-March’s all-time highs of 7448 or a plunge into uncharted territory for 2017?

We begin on Wednesday, with the Asia-focused lender Standard Chartered reporting to market at 9:30am. The lender, having weathered the storm surrounding the EU referendum back in June of last year particularly impressively alongside fellow Asian banking peer HSBC, has has a torrid time of late. After reaching a 17-month high of 821p in February, the company’s shares have since fallen back, accelerated further by disappointing FY results on 24 Feb – shares fell by 2.7% on the day. Currently trading 2.6% below City brokers’ 12-month target price, could Q1 results see the stock revitalised?

On Thursday, the immensely popular Lloyds reports its Q1 figures before the market open. The bank will soon be returned to full privatisation after almost a decade of government part-ownership and recently enjoyed the strongest share price performance of the UK banking sector after it reported FY results back on 22 Feb, with shares rallying 4.4% on the day. Its mortgage book remains the largest in the UK, so having stated that its PPI provisions are near (or even at) an end in its previous set of results, expect this to be a key area of interest. Like STAN, Lloyds shares too have fallen back from highs of February, although unlike its peer it is yet to recover to its pre-referendum levels. Will a bounce from rising lows support at 62p help this investor favourite return to the echelons of 74p?

Finally, on Friday we have a double helping from rivals Barclays and the Royal Bank of Scotland. Both entities have been (and in Barclays case, still are) involved in legal battles over practises in the run up to, and after, the 2008 crisis. With that said, however, both banks are looking to turn over a new leaf. Barclays had one of the most impressive Q3s of all of the UK banks following the EU referendum (seeing shares +4.8% on the day), however struggled to emulate the quarter in its FY results (-2.6%), while RBS has consistently seen its shares fall on account of its ongoing legacy issues (FY results share reaction -4.5%).

Could both banks mount a comeback in the very first quarter of 2017 to return to their mid-March highs and best levels since late 2015/early 2016?

Our clients will be informed of all four of these banks’ results as soon as they are released, while also having access to our in-depth special report on the sector. In the case of Barclays, Lloyds and RBS, they’ll receive a phone call from their dedicated trader before the market opens to inform them of the releases’ key figures. Does this sound like a service you’d benefit from? Then don’t fret, sign up here to get our research delivered directly to your inbox and see what our award-winning service can do for you.

James Abbott, Senior Trader, 21 April

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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