This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
Just as many thought Donald Trump had softened his protectionist views, the US President surprised many this week by announcing import tariffs on both Steel and Aluminium. The move is meant to counter Chinese steel ‘dumping’, but the ramifications may also be felt by UK Miners.
In particular, miners of Iron Ore – such as BHP Billiton (BLT), Glencore (GLEN) and Rio Tinto (RIO) – are most susceptible to be impacted by the 25% steel tariff, given the prominent use of Iron in producing steel.
While Trump’s tariffs are the only ones so far imposed, there are fears his move might spark a trade war between the US and areas such as China and the EU.
Despite his assertion that trade wars ‘are easy to win’, there are very real risks involved with implementing tariffs, not least the possibility that an escalation in tensions will lead to other items also being subject to punitive charges. Other raw materials which the US , such as Copper and even Oil, could be next if US, Chinese and European officials decide ramp up a trade war.
Already, the aforementioned London-listed miners are suffering, down by 2.2% (Glencore) to as much as 3.4% (Rio Tinto) as of 3:30pm (GMT) on Friday, but have suffered all week –Rio has fallen as much as 11% from this week’s highs, while Glencore has fallen 9.5% and BHP 8.8%.
If there are repercussions from China and the EU, could these share price falls become more pronounced? What if they choose not to get embroiled in a trade war? Is a recovery possible?
Tariffs raise the very real possibility that the free movement of goods will be limited, with the potential for other items, not just steel and aluminium, to also be subject to tariffs.
And that means it’s not just miners that are likely to be affected.
Engineers and Industrial companies that rely on raw materials to produce their products are also at risk of being caught in the cross fire. Most immediately, the largest Dow Jones constituent Boeing (US: BA) led the US index lower on Thursday, but this weakness also extended to its European peers. On the UK 100 , engine maker Rolls-Royce (RR.) is fast approaching fresh 10-month lows having broken down from February’s rising lows support earlier in the week.
However, there could be some silver lining. With the threat of rising prices, these companies could engage in drives to lower costs and improve efficiency, which could see long-term benefits similar to those experienced by Oil producers following the Oil supply glut.
The most important takeaway, however, is that a trade war could hamper global growth. A battle between the two largest economies in the world leaves everyone else scrambling to pick up the pieces. And while Trump asserts that trade wars are easy to win, he has also said that the tariffs could be implemented for a ‘long period of time’.
With so much at stake, it’s important to have the best sources of information available, not just to monitor your current positions, but also to identify other tradeable opportunities. Even better, having a platform in which you can profit from falling markets by shorting is of the utmost importance.
Thankfully Accendo Markets offers both of these important facilities. To get acquainted with our award-winning service, join our research list and discover how we can complement your trading in these exciting times.
Amrit Panesar, Senior Trader, 2 March 2018
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