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Home / Trade Alert / Buy – Provident Financial

This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.

Buy – Provident Financial - 22 November 2018

Trade Parameters

  • Opening Price: 598p
  • Stop Loss: 570p (28p/4.7% below)
  • Profit Limit: 675p (77p/12.9% above)
  • Reward vs Risk: 3.3x
  • CFD Margin: 20% (5% for those with Professional Status accounts)

Technical Observations – For

  • Bullish share price breakout
  • Shares broken back above 50-day mov. avg
  • Bullish divergence by Directional Indicators
  • Stochastics bounce off MACD
  • Rising momentum

Technical Observations – Against

  • Stochastics back to overbought
  • No volume jump on share breakout
  • RSI overbought
  • Rising momentum
  • Shares already +21% in a month

Analyst Comments

Provident receives full FCA authorization for home-credit business (9 Nov). Provident appoints Simon Thomas as new CFO, moving over from Just Group (6 Nov). Provident Q3 results showed continued progress (19 Oct).

Risks to Provident include a no-deal Brexit, tougher lending regulations, a Bank of England interest rate cut could mean more competition from high street lenders, and of course, broker downgrades.

Analysts are biased positive with 50% suggesting Buy and 50% Hold, while all 8 analysts with target prices suggest upside from current levels to a consensus of 731p, well above our target for revisiting August highs.

Next Event: Trading Update, 15 Jan

Latest Broker 12-Month Consensus:  50% Buy, 50% Hold, 0% Sell (full breakdown on request)

Source: DowJones Newswires, Reuters News, Bloomberg  or Company Press releases

8-month (daily) - MACD, Stochastics, Trend Strength, RSI, Momentum

1wk 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr
Perf % -2.3 -5.7 7.6 1.6 5.5 -6.3 7.7 4.8 0.3
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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.


Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance.

Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
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Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67% of retail investor accounts lose money when spread betting and/or trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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