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This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.

Buy – Johnson Matthey - 13 July 2018

Trade Parameters

  • Opening Price: 3610p
  • Stop Loss: 3520p (90p/2.5% below)
  • Profit Limit: 3850p (240p/6.6% above)
  • Reward vs Risk: 2.7x
  • CFD Margin: 8%

Observations – For

  • Bullish rebound; 3-month rising support
  • Stochastics broken above MACD
  • Bullish cross by Directional Indicators
  • RSI broken above resistance

Observations – Against

  • ADX (trend strength) low
  • No bullish reversal on Point & Figure chart
  • No major moving average support before 3400p
  • Momentum & MACD still negative

Analyst Comments

Shares in long-term uptrend. Diversifying from catalytic converters into electric vehicle battery materials, building new UK plant, to capitalise on trend for environmentally-friendly transport. Broker Deutsche Bank (27 Jun) expects Q1 results to meet guidance of mid-to-high single-digit profit growth. Broker Morgan Stanley (4 Jun) said JMAT story is compelling, with growth and the outlook improving in the medium term.

Risks to JMAT shares include a disappointing trading statement in July, headwinds from currencies reducing profits, supply issues with battery materials (China exports a lot rare earth minerals) and a low 2.4% dividend yield being less attractive than UK Index peers. A global trade war could hamper demand for all products.

Broker consensus is bullish, with 59% of analysts saying Buy and only 12% saying Sell. Furthermore 67% of broker targets suggest upside from current levels. The consensus target of 3797p is just below our short-term objective of June highs.

Next Event: Trading Statement, 26 Jul 

Latest Broker 12-Month Consensus:  59% Buy, 29% Hold, 12% Sell (full breakdown on request)

Source: DowJones Newswires, Reuters News, Bloomberg  or Company Press releases

12-month (daily): Stochastics, MACD, ADX (Trend strength), RSI and Momentum

Share 1wk 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr
Perf % 1.6 -4.5 10.6 14.3 28.3 18.0 13.2 14.9 20.5
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Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
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