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The USD Basket has recovered much of last week’s losses ahead of this week’s FOMC meetup. Expectations the Fed will raise interest rates are very low – almost non-existent in fact – since the likelihood of the UK voting to leave the EU has increased again, that being just one of a few international headwinds facing the US central bank.
Sterling has weakened further due to the above with poll after poll suggesting the UK will vote ‘Leave’ on 23 June. These are however commissioned largely by newspapers, not known for their outright neutrality which naturally extends to their readership. Nonetheless, since that’s all markets have to go on right now, then it’s that that’ll direct them. More woes ahead for the Pound then.
The Euro continues to benefit, relatively speaking, with the consequences of a Brexit set to weigh on both the UK and Eurozone currencies. Strength is therefore likely to transfer to the Japanese Yen via a correspondingly weak USD (if no summer rate hike) and a pick-up in safe haven seeking.
Note Chinese macro data failing to shine over the weekend, keeping the world’s #2 economy up there with the rest of them in terms of global headwinds.
Nothing of note
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UK Economic Announcements
09:30 Inflation data
Intl Economic Announcements
10:00 Industrial Production (EU)
13:30 Import and Export Price Indices, Retail Sales (US)
15:00 Business Inventories (US)
21:30 Crude Oil Inventories (US)
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UK Economic Announcements
09:30 Claimant Count Rate
Intl Economic Announcements
12:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (US)
13:30 Producer Price Index (US)
14:15 Industrial Production (US)
19:00 FOMC Interest Rate (US)
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UK Economic Announcements
09:30 Retail Sales
12:00 BoE Interest Rate
Intl Economic Announcements
10:00 Consumer Price Index (EU)
13:30 Consumer Price Index, Current Account, Philadelphia Fed Index (US)
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Intl Economic Announcements
09:00 Current Account (EU)
13:30 Building Permits (US)
13:30 Housing Starts (US)
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