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Retailer Ted Baker has reported a solid set of FY results, with faster growth for the 52 week period than January’s already strong 8-week Christmas trading statement. Add to this welcome margin expansion, an FX boost and dividend growth in-line with profits and investors are scratching their heads at today’s 4% share price declines.
As with many other retailers (and indeed corporates) of late, however, it has fallen foul of its outlook statement, with management anticipating trading conditions will remain challenging across many of its global markets. More cautious investors are clearly not prepared to look through this observation, for fear of it actually sugar-coating what could be a worsening in recent trading conditions dented by unseasonal weather. After all, the message from the UK high street and retail this week was hardly one of optimism. And as much as growth levels are handsome double-digits (retail, wholesale, internet and licensing), there also a worry that GBP’s recent climb is eroding what has been a rather helpful FX boost.
Today’s move extends the share price decline from March’s 2¼yr highs of 3240p, breaking below 2950p to revisit the lows of early Jan, before the aforementioned Christmas trading statement that engineered a 10% share price jump. Shares -4%, back trading near the lows of the day. Whether they can hold on to absolute year-to-date gains (now just 3.4% vs +19.5% at March highs) could be crucial.
Mike van Dulken, Head of Research, 22 Mar 2018
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