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Home / Blog / blog / Strong Foundations for Housebuilders? || 17-01-20

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Strong Foundations for Housebuilders? || 17-01-20

The aftermath of the General Election has heralded a new dawn for housebuilders with most enjoying a share price rise now that some of the recent political uncertainty has dispersed. Taylor Wimpey has seen its share price rise more than 15 per cent since election day, now standing at 211.20p at the time of writing, and it has reported that it expects results for the year to December 2019 to be in line with expectations.

The housebuilder says it has seen ‘a good level of demand for its homes’ and its order book is up 22 percent to £2.2 billion with completions up five per cent to 15,719.

So, can Taylor Wimpey build on this upward trajectory and deliver to its shareholders?

As well as reducing some of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the General Election result has also removed some of the potentially detrimental opposition policies which is good news for housebuilders across the board. The current Government is talking about extending the current Help to Buy initiative beyond 2023, which could provide another boost to the new build sector. Taylor Wimpey is also the second highest yielding stock in the UK 100 , having paid out £600m worth of dividends last year and it expects to do the same in 2020.

Most analysts are optimistic about the housebuilder’s continued growth prospects with UBS calculating its underlying profits should be above consensus and describing its November and December sales as ‘a very strong figure considering normal seasonality around Christmas.’

Competitor, Persimmon, released a slightly less exuberant trading update, but reported that its annual pre-tax profit will be online with its market consensus and its share price rose almost one per cent. The housebuilder has not enjoyed the same growth as Taylor Wimpey, it reported that new housing revenue had fallen by 3.5 per cent and completions had dipped by 3.6 per cent.

The York based housebuilder had a tough 2019, besieged by scandals about the poor quality of some of its builds. An independent review last month suggested that the firm was prioritising quantity over quality and highlighted improper installation of cavity barriers which posed a fire risk in some of its homes.

The housebuilder says the revenue decline ‘’reflects the action being taken to ensure the Group delivers improved levels of quality and service to its customers.’

Analysts are remaining cautious about Persimmon’s prospects – Hargreaves Lansdowne said its commitment to improving quality should help but much of its success is ‘reliant on factors it doesn’t control’ such as mortgage affordability and the continuation of Help-to-Buy. AJ Bell said rebuilding consumer trust will be a key factor in the housebuilder’s success but pointed out that it ‘has a strong balance sheet to lean on.’

Whether or not Persimmon can rebuild its reputation remains to be seen but the prospect of falling interest rates, a possible Help to Buy extension and the removal of opposition policies should certainly provide a boost to the housebuilding sector.

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