This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
Shares in Sports Direct were up to 11% lower this morning, falling victim to a combination of disappointing first half results and unfavourable technicals. This in spite of the company shifting focus to fewer smarter flagship stores and reducing online promotional activity, part of its goal to elevate its portfolio to become the Selfridges of Sport.
The big man may well claim the current strategy is delivering “spectacular trading performance”, with profits +23% on revenues +4.7%, implying healthy margin expansion. However this is only true once you adjust for all manner of things. Like excluding gains from FX moves and property sales, and ignoring more significant losses from fair value adjustments to unhedged FX forwards and options contracts, losses on strategic investments and fair value movements on derivatives. All of which aren’t truly exceptional, also present in the first half of last year. And it glosses over a big jump in net debt after operating cash flow fell and borrowings rose.
Factoring all those adjustments back in, reported profits fell a whopping 69%, compounding existing share price resistance at 395p derived from a long-term trendline (2yrs, 4 months) of falling highs and an inability this week to get back above the 100-day moving average. The 200-day moving average may have come to the rescue at 348p this morning, offering support for the first time since July’s recovery from a post-Brexit oscillation around 300p, but the question remains whether we’re headed back to shallow rising support at 305p (-15%)
Mike van Dulken, Head of Research, 14 Dec 2017
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
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