Barclays (BARC)

Barclays is one of the most US-exposed of the UK-listed Banks, and the only one in an uptrend for 2018, helped by it recently settling with the US DoJ for historical mis-selling. On the one hand this removes the biggest cloud hanging over the shares, although others remain. On the other hand, it means Q1 results will include a big exceptional charge. However, the bank can now move on after years of uncertainty, improve its profitability and restore the dividend to historical levels. Might it consider share buybacks too, to entice investors? How will the key investment banking division (previously the generator of >70% of group’s profits) have fared?

Share currently testing recent highs and decade long falling resistance. Could a breakout be imminent, overcoming a major hurdle to allow for a 10% rally back to 2017 highs?

Will Barclays break out to 2017 highs of 244p (+12%) or fall back to 2017 lows of 177p (-19%)?

• Rising channel of sorts since late 2017; Falling highs resistance since Feb 2007
• Can the shares maintain their up-channel to break beyond major resistance?
• Brokers are positively biased (88% Buy/Hold), with >70% of broker targets above the current price.
• 5% average results day trading range since 2012 (4.8% for Q1 updates too).
• In the 10-day run-up to FY results in Feb and Q1 results last April, BARC shares rallied around 5%

Broker Consensus: 46% Buy, 42% Hold, 12% Sell

Bullish: AlphaValue, Buy, Target 258p, +18% (5 Apr 18)

Average Target: 221p, +1% (13 Apr 18)

Bearish: Mediobanca, Underperform, Target 190p, -13% (5 Apr 18)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 13 April 2018. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.