William Hill (WMH)

Source: CMC Markets, 20 November 2018

• William Hill’s shares are in a downtrend since May.
• Increasing regulatory pressure and proposed tax law changes depressed gambling shares in 2018.
• Shares -49% from 2018 highs; now trading at 2018 lows; -46% year-to-date.
• Historically, William Hill shares tend to go up during the December’s Santa Rally.
• The bookmaker has an impressive 94% December hit rate (+5.7% on average, up in 15 out of 16 years).
• Brokers are positively biased, with 94% of analysts saying “Buy” or “Hold”.
• All 12 of the latest analyst/broker updates suggest upside for William Hill shares
• The average broker target price is 287.3p, a level last traded in late October.

Will William Hill return to recent 225p high (+30.1%) or fall to Nov 2010 low of 154p (-11.2%)?

Broker Consensus: 53% Buy, 41% Hold, 6% Sell
Bullish: Investec, Buy, Target 353p, +104% (31 Oct 18)

Average Target: 287.31p, +66.1% (20 Nov 18)

Bearish: Numis, Hold, Target 210p, +21.4% (8 Oct 18)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 20 November 2018. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

WPP (WPP)

Source: CMC Markets, 20 November 2018

• WPP shares are trading lower in 2018 after the media agency cut is earnings targets in March.
• Shares are now -42% from 2018 highs; +4.7% from 2018 lows; -36% year-to-date.
• WPP shares have rallied in 20 out of the past 24 Santa Rallies (83% success rate).
• Ad agency’s shares have been positive in every single Santa Rally since 2005.
• Average December performance: +4.5%.
• Despite the recent downtrend, only 5 brokers out of 29 are saying “Sell”.
• A significant 88% of analysts are projecting a higher share price for WPP in the medium term.
• Average broker target price of 1083p, shares last traded there in the middle of October.

Will WPP bounce to Oct highs of 1157p (+36.1%) or continue to June 2012 low of 732p (-13.9%)?

Broker Consensus: 34.5% Buy, 48% Hold, 17% Sell
Bullish: Société Générale, Buy, Target 1750p, +106.6% (13 Nov 18)

Average Target: 1083.48p, +27.8% (20 Nov 18)

Bearish: Day by Day, Sell, Target 621.43p, -26.6% (12 Nov 18)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 20 November 2018. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

Vodafone (VOD)

Source: CMC Markets, 20 November 2018

• Vodafone shares under pressure after concerns over revenue growth and a large accumulated debt.
• Shares -35.9% from 2018 highs; bouncing +7.7% from 2018 lows, -33.6% year-to-date.
• Recent half-year results have been viewed positively by the market: the mobile telecoms provider was able to preserve its dividend, which has been a major progress benchmark for analysts.
• Since 1994, Vodafone shares averaged 2.2% gains in December, up 16 times out of 24 (67% success rate).
• Company’s best December performance was in 1997, the shares gaining +10.9%.
• Analysts are bullish on the shares, with 88% of brokers projecting an upside for the share price.

Will Vodafone rally to Sept highs of 171p (+11%) or fall to Oct low of 142p (-7.8%)?

Broker Consensus: 59% Buy, 27% Hold, 14% Sell
Bullish: ROE Equity Research, Buy, Target 300p, +94.8% (14 Nov 17)

Average Target: 198.86p, +29.1% (20 Nov 18)

Bearish: Macquarie, Underperform, Target 125p, -18.8% (13 Nov 18)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 20 November 2018. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

Taylor Wimpey (TW)

Source: CMC Markets, 20 November 2018

• Construction company Taylor Wimpey’s shares have been a victim on continuing Brexit uncertainty.
• Shares now -30% from 2018 highs; trading just 1.4% away from 2018 lows; -30% year-to-date.
• Outside of Brexit worries, fundamentals remained solid, with low interest rates, a wide range of mortgage options for buyers and the recent extension of the Help-to-Buy real estate scheme. (Source: FT)
• Historically, Taylor Wimpey enjoyed a stand-out performance during Santa Rallies, adding an average 6% to its share price in December, its best performance (+32.3%) in 2010.
• Taylor Wimpey shares have been positive during 19 out of the past 24 Santa Rallies, a 79% hit rate.
• Its shares now down 30% in 2018, could Taylor Wimpey bounce back yet again in 2018?

Will Taylor Wimpey return to Sept highs of 174p (+20%) or go to Nov 2016 low of 137p (-6.2%)?

Broker Consensus: 67% Buy, 28% Hold, 5% Sell
Bullish: Goodbody, Buy, Target 245p, +69% (13 Nov 18)

Average Target: 205.54p, +41.8% (20 Nov 18)

Bearish: Cenkos, Hold, Target 160p, -10.3% (13 Nov 18)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 20 November 2018. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

Kingfisher (KGF)

Source: CMC Markets, 20 November 2018

• DIY retail chain Kingfisher has struggled in 2018, with trading especially weak in France.
• While Screwfix outperformed in the first half with 10.4% sales growth, B&Q sales declined 2.3%.
• French first half sales fell by 2.1% after continued weakness in Kingfisher’s Castorama chain.
• Shares -33% from 2018 highs; +3.7% 2018 lows; -29% year-to-date.
• Despite trading difficulties, most brokers still remain Bullish, with analysts at Morgan Stanley pointing to Kingfisher’s diversified business model, low debt, £5bn in assets and a surplus in its pension scheme as major positives. (Source: FT)
• Brokers at Morgan Stanley see the shares go as high as 390p in the medium term (+59.2% upside).
• The DIY chain has had a solid performance during the previous Santa Rallies, shares positive in 16 out of 24 years (66% hit rate) and an average December share price gain of +3.1%

Will Kingfisher rally to Oct highs of 267p (+8.1%) or turn back toward Nov low of 238p (-3.6%)?

Broker Consensus: 57.9% Buy, 26.3% Hold, 15.8% Sell
Bullish: Morgan Stanley, Overweight, Target 390p, +59.2% (19 Sept 18)

Average Target: 308.82p, +26% (20 Nov 18)

Bearish: Investec, Sell, Target 235p, -4.1% (8 Oct 18)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 20 November 2018. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

CRH (CRH)

Source: CMC Markets, 26 November 2018

• Irish infrastructure company reported positive Q3 results in Nov, forecasting higher 2018 earnings.
• Brokers at Davy say that CRH’s depressed share price doesn’t reflect either the company’s outlook nor its efforts to improve business (Source: DowJones, 20 Nov).
• Other brokers also share an overwhelmingly bullish outlook, with no brokers saying “Sell” and only 1 analyst projecting a lower target price in the medium term (95% are projecting a share upside).
• Shares -25.1% from 2018 highs; +4.7% 2018 lows; -17.9% year-to-date.
• The best Santa Rally performer on the UK 100 , shares positive in 21 out of 24 years (88% hit rate)
• Strong average December share price gain of +6.1%

Will CRH rally to 2018 highs of 2893p (+32.4%) or turn back toward Jun ’16 low of 1899p (-13.2%)?

Broker Consensus: 79.2% Buy, 20.8% Hold, 0% Sell
Bullish: Bryan Garnier & Co, Buy, Target 3378.3p, + 54.5%% (20 Nov 18)

Average Target: 2908.8p, +33% (26 Nov 18)

Bearish: Day by Day, Sell, Target 1699.85p, -22.2% (19 Nov 18)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 26 November 2018. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

Persimmon (PSN)

Source: CMC Markets, 26 November 2018

• In its latest trading statement, the housebuilder Persimmon said Q3 private sales rose 3% YoY.
• Persimmon is completely sold up in 2018 and has around £987m of forward sales reserves after 2018.
• Despite general Brexit uncertainty, house prices have held steady across regional markets.
• Consumer confidence and support from mortgage lenders contributed to positive market conditions.
• All analysts with recent updates say the shares should rise in the medium-term, average target of 2726p.
• Shares -25.3% from 2018 highs; +6.3% 2018 lows; -21.3% year-to-date.
• 75% December success rate, shares positive in 18 out of 24 years.
• Solid average share price rise in December (+5.4%).

Will Persimmon rally to Oct highs of 2447p (+12.9%) or fall to 2018 low of 2045p (-5.7%)?

Broker Consensus: 79.2% Buy, 20.8% Hold, 0% Sell
Bullish: J.P. Morgan, Overweight, Target 3250p, + 50% (9 Nov 18)

Average Target: 2726.38p, +25.8% (26 Nov 18)

Bearish: Cenkos Securities, Hold, Target 2415p, +11.4% (9 Nov 18)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 26 November 2018. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

Barratt Developments (BDEV)

Source: CMC Markets, 26 November 2018

• Barratt Developments’ Q1 update in October was solid, with a good sales rate and healthy order book.
• The construction company also reiterated its key medium-term target of 3-5% volume growth.
• Much like with its fellow housebuilder Persimmon, all recent broker updates see a share price upside for Barratt, with an average target price of 637p.
• Shares -23% from 2018 highs; +7.1% 2018 lows; -21.8% year-to-date.
• Bullish Santa Rally performance for the shares, with Barratt positive in 16 out of 24 years (67% hit rate)
• Average December share price gain of +6.5% (second best on the UK 100 )

Will Barratt rise to Summer highs of 588p (+15.7%) or return to 2018 low of 475p (-6.5%)?

Broker Consensus: 68.4% Buy, 26.3% Hold, 5.3% Sell
Bullish: Credit Suisse, Outperform, Target 744p, +46.5% (17 Oct 18)

Average Target: 637.93p, +25.6% (26 Nov 18)

Bearish: Liberum, Hold, Target 525p, +3.3% (14 Nov 18)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 26 November 2018. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

Fresnillo (FRES)

Source: CMC Markets, 26 November 2018

• Shares of Mexican silver miner Fresnillo have been under recent pressure after introduction of a series of bills in the Mexican parliament that could restrict mining.
• Shares are now trading just 1.1% away from 2018 lows (-48.9% from 2018 highs; -45.2% year-to-date).
• Despite the downtrend, brokers are still bullish on the miner, with only 1 analyst saying “Sell”.
• Part of the UK 100 in the past 10 years, with a 50% success rate during December Santa Rallies.
• Shares up 5.2% on average in December.
• Strong performance in December 2017 (+10.7%). Will it be repeated this year as well?

Will Fresnillo rise to October highs of 982p (+26.7%) or fall to 2018 low of 738p (-4.8%)?

Broker Consensus: 56.3% Buy, 37.5% Hold, 6.3% Sell
Bullish: Goldman Sachs, Buy/Neutral, Target 1475p, + 90.3% (26 Oct 18)

Average Target: 1129.73p, +45.8% (26 Nov 18)

Bearish: Morgan Stanley, Underweight/Attractive, Target 715p, -7.7% (21 Nov 18)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 26 November 2018. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

Sage Group (SGE)

Source: CMC Markets, 26 November 2018

• The IT and accounting company Sage last reported results in late November.
• Pre-tax profit rose 16% and Sage increased its final dividend by 6.3% (to 10.85p/share).
• Company appointed Steve Hare as its new Chief Executive Officer in early November.
• Shares -30.1% from 2018 highs; +17.32% 2018 lows; -27.5% year-to-date.
• Strong performance during the previous Santa Rallies, shares positive in 16 out of 24 years (66% hit rate)
• Average December share price gain of +3.1%

Will Sage go to Summer highs of 699p (+20.7%) or fall back to 2018 low of 492p (-15%)?

Broker Consensus: 44.4% Buy, 38.9% Hold, 16.7% Sell
Bullish: Jefferies, Buy, Target 820p, +41.9% (23 Nov 18)

Average Target: 594p, +2.8% (26 Nov 18)

Bearish: Day by Day, Sell, Target 450.6p, -22% (19 Nov 18)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 26 November 2018. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

Antofagasta (ANTO)

Source: CMC Markets, 26 November 2018

• Copper miner Antofagasta had the planned expansion of its Los Pelambres mine approved in mid-Nov.
• The expansion will add an average of 60,000 metric tons of copper in the first 15 years of operation.
• Shares could see further benefit from the resolution of the US-China trade dispute, with analysts looking forward to the upcoming meeting between US and Chinese presidents in Argentina for progress on the issue that hurt mining stocks this year.
• Shares -32.3% from 2018 highs; +11.2% 2018 lows; -20.5% year-to-date.
• Strong performance during the past 24 Santa Rallies, shares positive in 17 out of 24 years (71% hit rate)
• Shares rose an average of +5.8% in past Decembers.

Will Antofagasta bounce to 2018 highs of 1012p (+26.7%) or go to 2018 low of 712p (-10.9%)?

Broker Consensus: 52% Buy, 32% Hold, 16% Sell
Bullish: Jefferies, Buy, Target 1300p, +62.9% (8 Nov 18)

Average Target: 594p, +2.8% (26 Nov 18)

Bearish: Liberum, Sell, Target 525p, -33% (16 Nov 18)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 26 November 2018. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

Paddy Power Betfair (PPB)

Source: CMC Markets, 26 November 2018

• The bookmaker Paddy Power Betfair reported solid Q3 results in early November.
• Revenues grew 8% YoY, while profits were up 6% after excluding one-offs and acquisitions.
• Revenue in the critical US market grew 22% thanks to the takeover of sports betting website FanDuel.
• Gambling company also raised its full-year profits guidance to £465-480m.
• Shares -21.7% from 2018 highs; +19.8% 2018 lows; -19.7% year-to-date.
• 75% hit rate during the past Santa Rallies, shares positive in 13 out of 17 years.
• Impressive +6.2% average share price rally during the past Santa Rallies.
• Bookmaker’s shares have been positive in every December since 2009.

Will Paddy Power rise to July highs of 8595p (+21.6%) or go to 2018 low of 6000p (-15.1%)?

Broker Consensus: 22.2% Buy, 44.4% Hold, 33.3% Sell
Bullish: Goodbody, Buy, Target 88600p, +25.3% (23 Nov 18)

Average Target: 6792.73p, -4% (26 Nov 18)

Bearish: Investec, Sell, Target 5640p, -20.3% (9 Nov 18)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 26 November 2018. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.