General Election Page 1

So much for that well-earned breather for UK voters. Instead, the second general election in 3 years will be taking place on 8 June, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. The election has come at a pivotal time in modern UK history. Following on from last year’s Brexit vote, the country is on the verge of going it alone without Europe for the first time in almost five decades. In this report, we’ll provide you a comprehensive analysis of how to trade it.

What’s at stake?

The ruling Conservative Party, led by Theresa May, are looking to cement their place in government with a greater parliamentary majority than their current 17, not to mention running under a fresh mandate rather than David Cameron’s previous administrative policies. Running against them, the opposition Labour Party will hope to stage a major upset as Jeremy Corbyn looks to prove his doubters wrong for a third time. Meanwhile the Tories’ former coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats, look to bounce back from a disappointing collapse in support in 2015. The Scottish National Party aim to give their calls for a second independence referendum some extra gravitas with another standout election, while UKIP look to avoid becoming consigned to the annals of history.

What are the polls saying?

The Prime Minister’s party came into the election with the largest ever lead in the polls at the outset of an election campaign. However, May’s Conservatives have since seen their lead slip as Labour makes significant gains. With only a week to go, some polls have even raised the possibility of a hung parliament, with the Conservative falling just 15 seats short of a majority. Labour would need a further 71 seats to form a majority, but after the political surprises of the past 12 months, could the 2017 UK General Election be the next big upset?

Is this a second Brexit/Scottish referendum?

Yes and No. While both the Conservatives and Labour are attempting to avoid using Brexit as a central campaign theme, the Liberal Democrats on the other hand are centring their campaign around the issue. Tim Farron, the LibDem leader, has stated that his party would investigate whether a second referendum on EU membership is possible, while his counterparts staunchly maintain that Britain will leave the EU.

Looking northwards, the Scottish National Party will hope to enjoy an equally as impressive performance as the 2015 general election, when the party won the most seats in its history. Should it manage to top 2015, the party will have a stronger mandate to call a second independence referendum, something that the SNP Leader Nicola Sturgeon has announced that she will be seeking should Britain receive an unfavourable Brexit deal with the EU.

For a comprehensive analysis of how a Conservative or Labour government would likely influence UK stocks, take a look over the page where we provide a look at which sectors would likely be most affected. Do you agree?

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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