This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
I know – it’s a bit late to be asking such a question, but around 10% of those who can vote still don’t know which way they will! I am one. And if I haven’t decided by tomorrow, then I know what I won’t do, and that’s waste a vote.
What’s the only logical thing to do in such a situation? Why, it simply must be to vote ‘Remain!’
It’s logical because to vote ‘Remain’ is the only way that things can continue as they are, which let’s face it isn’t all that bad, and crucially can change in the future. On the other hand, a ‘Leave’ vote will usher in an unprecedented and volatile time. Though market effects are sure to be short-lived, other things may not be so. For example, the UK will have to negotiate the terms of its exit which could take years and yield little in our favour – after all, why should the EU be worse off for it?
Of course, no-one really believes the apocalyptic rhetoric of the Remain camp, not least the Remain camp itself! But that’s not the point. The point is that most reasonable people must recognise that staying in the EU keeps the UK an influential and already privileged member of the block, which makes it possible for the UK to both effect and lead much needed change in the future. That may seem impossible now, but remember it’s impossible for those that say it is, not those that say it isn’t! If the UK exits now, that’s it. Is it worth risking such a mistake right now?
Immigration remains at the forefront of the debate, championed by idiots like Britain First (who unwittingly tweeted a photograph of Czech RAF pilots defending Britain in WWII, thinking they were British). Many a ‘Leaver’ will bang on about it before telling you it’s not the reason they’re voting the way they are. But it quite clearly is, and I’m not saying that said Leavers are all far right bone heads, they’re not, they just don’t want to be associated with far right bone heads.
Immigration is about so much more than Albanians ‘coming over here, taking all our jobs…’ The wealth gap that the EU’s Eastwards expansion has dredged up is really significant, and free movement of people means that residents of those countries are obviously going to head straight for the most promising and downright fun country in the EU – that being the UK on account of its tolerance, diversity and multiculturalism – in search of a vastly increased quality of life.
There are big differences in how Eastern and Western European nations have developed – so there’s a cultural gap too. This makes integration all the more of a challenge. Yet immigration doesn’t just challenge the UK in terms of inflows, it challenges the poorer Eastern nations in terms of outflows even more, so it does need to be addressed. It’s not unique to the UK, so it can’t be solved by the UK alone and it certainly won’t be solved by the UK’s leaving the EU.
People talk of the security issue too. That’s also a valid concern. But instead of the UK just going away to sort itself out, which is a pipedream anyway, a better approach for dealing with the issue might be for some people to have some ideas. For example, the EU and Schengen area could re-instate internal borders which could be controlled according to the perceived security risk. If that were the case, right now I’d wager they’d be pretty tightly controlled, but in the future perhaps not so. Of course, what do I know? But the point is that we as British citizens, along with those of other European nations, are capable of much more than simply retreating into our own particular sovereign bubbles and holding each other at arm’s length.
It’s true that Europe and the rest of the world face some big challenges right now. The EU is not in fine fettle. However, the UK’s referendum on EU membership was granted to us by a politician who wanted to win an election. Don’t vote to ‘Leave’ unless you absolutely mean it!
Augustin Eden, Research Analyst (22 June)
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
Comments are closed.