This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
The USD is still in consolidation mode, with a break above its 100-day moving average encouraging for bulls, who’ll be jumping on Janet Yellen’s comments that indicated a ‘summer’ US rate hike might be on the cards. As usual, this remains data dependent with the afternoon of 31 May likely to provide several key inputs, most notably the PCE which is the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. Note inflation is still the key metric regarding US monetary policy.
This Friday’s US jobs report will still garner a lot of attention as fodder for the monthly office sweepstake, and while the headline print is indeed entertaining, focus your gaze on the average earnings figures as these are a more immediate driver for inflation.
With 3 weeks to go until the UK’s EU in/out referendum, Sterling continues to strengthen off its lows, driven by the essentially objective assessment by the Bank of England. Pound bulls will hope this wins out over increasingly desperate fearmongering from the Brexit camp (threats to David Cameron’s leadership and all that). Data expected to have a muted (at best) effect on GBP strength.
As usual, the Euro remains largely driven lower by US and UK fundamentals, while Tuesday’s CPI confirming an improvement YoY should keep it supported versus more minor peers.
—
** Bank Holiday – UK markets closed **
Intl Economic Announcements
07:00 Import Price Index (GER)
—
UK Economic Announcements
00:01 BRC Shop Price Index
Intl Economic Announcements
07:00 Retail Sales (GER)
09:00 M3 Money Supply (EU
10:00 Unemployment Rate (EU)
13:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures, Income, Spending (US)
14:45 Chicago PMI (US)
—
UK Economic Announcements
07:00 Nationwide House Price Index
09:30 M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals
Intl Economic Announcements
12:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (US)
15:00 Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid (US)
15:30 Crude Oil Inventories (US)
—
UK Economic Announcements
09:30 PMI Construction
Intl Economic Announcements
08:55 Unemployment Rate (GER
10:00 Producer Price Index (EU)
12:45 ECB Interest Rate (EU)
13:30 Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims (US)
—
Intl Economic Announcements
10:00 Retail Sales (EU)
13:30 Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate (US)
15:00 Factory Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing (US)
—
—
—
—
Until next week, Take Care!
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
Comments are closed.