This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
2016 will be remembered as a year of tremendous highs and lows for investors, with economic and political surprises resulting in some amazing opportunities. None more so than for followers of the heavily traded mining sector.
Having been stuck in the deep pits of a commodity price downturn at the turn of the new year with fears about the Chinese economy dampening market sentiment, many miners began 2016 trading at their lowest level since 2008.
However, fast forward 12 months and the largest mining names in the UK finished the year leading the blue chip index in year to date gains, with Anglo American at the head of the pack with an astronomical 514% rally from its 2016 lows, while Antofagasta offered a 23.9% return to investors since the election of Donald Trump in the US.
Next week sees three of the largest five blue chip miners in the UK reporting their fourth quarter results, so we ask what other events could impact the sector in the coming year?
The incoming US President could be a major catalyst for the success of miners over the course of this year. During his acceptance speech in November, a statesmanly Trump promised to drastically increase infrastructure spending in his attempts to ‘Make America great again’, which boosted not only big name construction and engineering names, but also the price of industrial commodities. The price explosion that followed helped the UK 100 ‘s miners rally from an impressive 12.1% (BHP Billiton) to an astounding 23.9% (Antofagasta) since November 9. Could he play an important role for the UK’s mining sector next week?
Furthermore, the impact of positive translational gains for the sector stemming from 2016’s political surprises helped mining names rally significantly since June 23. An investment in the worst performing miner would have returned a staggering 63.9%, while opening a long position in the best performer would have netted a 104.5% return. Furthermore, the impact of FX markets is poised to continue its importance as we begin the new year.
Aready in 2017 we’ve seen both the Pound and Dollar largely impacted by the continuation of 2016’s major political and economic events. As Theresa May outlined her plans for the UK’s exit from the European Union, Sterling saw its largest daily rally against its US counterpart since October 2008 while the mining sector fell across the board. On the other side of the coin, hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen saw the greenback fight back against its European counterparts.
The currency tug of war will undoubtedly continue to influence the miners and their buck-denominated products over the course of 2017 as the political climate in Europe and the US changes on a daily basis in reaction to Brexit and Trump.
Next week, the FX impact of the UK Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Article 50 adds further spice to an already exciting week for the Miners, as we finally get to see whether Donald Trump follows through on his promises for US infrastructure. Finally, include Q4 results from Anglo American, Antofagasta and BHP Billiton and you have the perfect recipe for some intriguing opportunities over the coming week.
Will you be able to dig up a solid gold trade?
Do you currently have a broker who will break down and inform you of the most important points from next week’s key results before the market even opens? Perhaps you’re only made aware of key matters once it’s too late to find the attractive trading opportunities you want. Why continue to be disappointed when you could instead sign up to the research here at Accendo Markets to make sure you’re informed in time and on time, not just any time?
James Poole, Trader, 20 January
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
Comments are closed.