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Retail investors are rushing back into UK 100 Miners, jumping on momentum from a weak USD inspired by hopes the Fed dials back on its hawkish trajectory for US rate rises. Gains may be despite little change on the commodity supply glut front, however, it would appear that an increasing faction views the sector as having seen the worst, on its way back from oversold and on the right track in terms of painful measures to correct structural issues (CPAEX cuts, div cuts). With AAL having delivered a breakout above a 300p, RIO above 1800p, ANTO back at 400p, BHP knocking on 700p and Glen gunning 100p, the group is between 15 and 30% of its worst levels and clearly benefiting from psychological round number levels. A Gold price reversal to 12-month falling highs on the weak USD is also helping demand for shares in RRS which is trading 11-month highs. However, how long can this all last with the USD already back at 3.5-month lows and August rising support. Furthermore, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is unlikely to kiss what’s left of her already dented credibility goodbye by holding her hands up in testimony this month and saying “you’re right, we were wrong, no more hikes this year, all is not rosy”. Have things moved too far too fast? A mere bull-trap correction within the longer-term downtrend?
Mike van Dulken, Head of Research
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
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