Two weeks ago I wrote about UK Index  Miners. My focus was on sector giant Rio Tinto but my observations about share price recovery applied just as much to peers. Trends are intact, bulls still optimistic, in spite of troubling news.

China Trade data showed exports growth plunging 20%. This bolstered fears about a protracted US-China trade war. The price of Copper, under pressure from February highs on lower perceived demand, had fuel added to its fire.

Rio Tinto shares, however, trade higher when adjusted for that monster 7% dividend (+27% from Dec lows; at 2018/19 highs). BHP may be off its best levels, but it is equally off its worst (+16% from Dec lows, -6% from 2019 highs).

Antofagasta has bounced off 2019 rising support (+27.5%; -4.9%). Glencore is pushing its best since we wrote two weeks ago (+14.8%; -3%). And KAZ Minerals looks to have found support (+25.7%; -9.9%).

Even the safehaven miners have bounced. Fresnillo is off the floor of a multi-month range (+7% from Dec lows; -21.5% from 2019 highs). Centamin is also off multi-month lows (+4%; -33%). Polymetal bounced off 2019 shallow rising support (+11.7%; -4%). Lastly, Hochschild Mining still benefits from rising support (+25.9%; -7.1%).

In contrast, Anglo American (+25.8%; -6.6%) and Acacia Mining (+16.3%; -26.2%) are lower. Both continue to pullback from February highs, although the latter is easily the under-performer.

Will the fallers continue to lose ground? Or could they be the best rebound candidates? Will the risers maintain momentum? Will those at highs break even higher?

I haven’t even mentioned Brexit yet. The UK’s Pound has rallied on hopes of a delayed Brexit. GBP/USD is at its best levels since mid-last year, GBP/EUR at its best since May 2017 (both +6% from Jan lows; -1% from 2019 highs).

Sterling strength is normally a UK Index hindrance, depressing the value of foreign dividends. With commodities typically priced in dollars, so are Miners’ dividends, meaning FX is key. That said, the normally inverse UK Index /GBP relationship has been broken for about a year now.

So it’s not as if headwinds were lacking this week. There was more than enough to fret about. Yet sector shares are largely holding up very well.

In most cases post-Christmas uptrends for Mining share prices remain in tact, much like the UK 100 . If today’s UK Index breakout above 7200 is anything to go by, the sector could well follow suit, resuming uptrends after the recent pause.

In fact, if the index has 3-4% upside potential to 7500 (ceiling of rising channel, last September’s highs) the Miners could do similar. And being a high beta sector (it rises and falls more than the index), they could perhaps do even better.

Next week we get results from Antofagasta (Tues, 7am). Could it provide good news that gives it and the sector a second wind? Because it’s a big copper name, it could move Copper prices, with a knock-on for peers.

Ferrexpo (Weds, 7am) is another name reporting. It is big in iron ore for the steel industry, meaning it is also sensitive to China and global demand. Yet its shares have been largely flat from mid-Feb highs.

GBP could be another driver next week, moving up and down on all those Westinster soundbites. The Prime Minister is in Brussels on Thurs/Fri, likely requesting a Brexit delay. Will the pound surge, drop or tread water? Consequently, will the big UK Index Miners react too?

There is lots going on again next week. The sector could see some big share price moves. Are you ready to act?

Accendo Markets helps its clients by providing the information they need to trade. This can be in the from of price alerts, share charts, key dates and financial numbers, all from a friendly dedicated trader. That’s the service.

But it doesn’t stop there. Our research offers hand-picked trading opportunities twice daily. These include shares trading up off the floor of a range, candidates which look ripe for a rebound, names in the midst of a breakout and those showing momentum which could be piggy-backed.

If you employ any of these trading strategies get access to our research Gold Pass now! Let us trawl the charts for you. We had several Miners in our Support, Range, Momentum and Results categories this week. Who’ll be in there next week?

Mike van Dulken, Head of Research, 15 March 2019