This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
When investing in the stock market, many a smart investor will jump on (or off…) past performance without looking at the future outlook. Those that saw Lloyds Banking Group’s results and went long would’ve suffered. Likewise those that saw Barclays today and sold out of their position off the back of a ‘disappointing’ set of numbers would’ve missed out on a further 8% of profits. Buying shares is like buying a house. Much like the estate agent that conveniently forgets to show you the dry rot under the floorboards of the house that’s a ‘great buy’, companies all too often gloss over the negatives in their reports. We take up the floorboards of company earnings to ensure that our clients don’t miss out.
Nonetheless, reporting season rarely fails to provide excitement and this one’s been no exception. Companies have updated markets on their H1 2016 performance and, as we’ve highlighted so often before, the devil has resided in the detail throughout. Take Lloyds Banking Group for example – profits doubled on the same period last year while the bank announced more cost cutting measures to protect its generous dividend. But markets saw a conflict in the announcement – a strong balance sheet but more aggressive cost cutting plans – and got suspicious. Does management know something we don’t? No, but it is preparing itself for something.
If the Bank of England cuts UK interest rates next Thursday, as many think it will, then Lloyds will definitely be wanting to cut more costs although it’ll be in a strong position to take on that challenge. If the BoE holds off, however, then Lloyds Banking Group could present a great growth opportunity with shares currently priced at about 53p, that in addition to an already decent dividend. There’s good reason to suspect the central bank will indeed use alternative means of stimulating the economy that are kinder to already downtrodden banks and financials. Our head of research’s Analyst summary will tell you more!
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Pearse Carson, Trader, 29 July
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
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