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Ignore central banks at your peril

Whilst understandably there’s only one event that will receive the headlines next week, there’s another top tier event taking place on June 8 which traders should pay close attention to. Near to the European Union’s land border with Russia, European Central Bank policymakers will meet in Talinn, Estonia to provide markets with their latest monetary policy decision.

blogCrucially, there is potential for this particular summit to move away from the pattern of previous meetings of the ECB, in which only the change made to the previous policy press release before it is marched out in front of onlookers is the date.

In recent days, reports have surfaced that policymakers will begin to discuss the possibility of removing further easing stimulus which has aimed at reinvigorating European economic growth, however has also increased inflationary pressures on the Eurozone’s strongest economies. Having been under pressure from the hawks within their ranks – mostly from the EU’s German engine room – to begin talking about the removal of policy, finally beginning discussions would suggest that ECB Chief Draghi and the rest of the council are confident that the Eurozone economy is turning a corner. Either that, or that the internal bickering has reached an unprecedented level.

Despite inflation falling back below the ECB’s 2% target earlier in the week, easing some hawkish pressure, discussions about potential policy removal may still take place as Draghi and fellow policymakers look to avoid increasing policy divergence with the US. Besides, having avoided the issue for so long, perhaps the show-stealing UK election could provide the perfect cover for the taper-talk to finally take place.

Euro-watchers, keep your eyes peeled for that policy statement.

Before the dust has even settled from the events of next Thursday, and we begin to acclimatise to our newly elected Prime Minister, the US Federal Reserve also meet to update monetary policy on 14 June.

Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls print of 138K, 25% lower than the 185K that markets had expected, whilst disappointing, is unlikely to force Chair Janet Yellen and other US policymakers to keep interest rates on hold.

Coming into today’s crucial US Jobs Report, the 3rd rate hike of 2017 was all but priced into markets. Yet the subsequent US dollar sell-off to its lowest level since the US election in November goes to show the degree to which investors (myself included) were expectant, maybe even complacent, that it would confirm Thursday’s blowout Non-Farm curtain-raiser ADP print.

However, Inflation remains above the central bank’s stipulated 2% target and, despite the NFP miss,Unemployment continues to tick lower, reaching its lowest level since 2001.  Furthermore, should the Fed continue to follow the pattern of hiking rate when a press conference is schedule, June seems the obvious option. All we need to do now is wait.

With a multitude of events on the calendar for next week, it’s incredibly easy to miss a key speech or a crucial data release. Our research department trawls through the data for you so that you don’t miss a thing. In the most important week of 2017 so far for markets just three days away, why not try it for yourself by signing up to receive our research direct to your inbox and discover for yourself why we were recently voted Best CFD Research Service by ADVFN.

I hope you enjoy your weekend.

Henry Croft, Research Analyst, 2 June

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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