The UK referendum tide may have turned following the callous murder of a defenceless pro-Europe MP. Bookies say the event has revived the chances of a ‘Remain’ vote next Thursday. Traditional last-minute decisions by polling-day voters to maintain the status-quo could well intensify.

Markets like the UK 100 of UK blue-chip equities and Pound Sterling could thus be set to soar if the electorate opts to keep the United Kingdom in the European Union. June market moves to the downside already implied much concern that a Leave vote was on the cards, each new poll suggesting the out camp taking a greater lead, sending the UK Index and pound further south.

The events of yesterday remain difficult to comprehend (that type of thing just doesn’t happen to politicians here; elsewhere maybe, but not here in Blighty). But despite all the tragedy surrounding the loss of life of a young mother, wife, dedicated humanitarian and talented MP, it could be that – just as she was campaigning for – the UK electorate takes the horrific event as a sign that an increasingly acrimonious debate has gone too far. Most agree the arguments from both sides have been too focused on what’s wrong with the opposing view rather than what’s right with their own. Classic political scaremongering tactics. Enough is enough.

A repeated stark warning from the Bank of England (BoE), of the economic impact of a Brexit vote may also help seal the deal, despite repeated attempts from the Leave camp to muzzle the independent UK Central Bank and its governor Mark Carney on political issues. Why should he not opine as to necessary policy changes in the case of a Brexit? Central Bankers may not have the best reputation post-crisis, having missed signals about the impending crash, but their opinion on looming major events with significant financial impact (recession?) makes sense to me.

So come next Friday, a Remain vote would likely see global markets rally on the passing of what has been significant event-risk. UK consumer confidence would return. Retail therapy would resume with gusto. House prices could resume their march ever higher. No crash. No panic.

Most see the UK 100 ‘s 6430 highs of the year as a reasonable target, just 7% away. Some are talking of a return to 12-month highs of 6800, even the 7000 all-time highs of April 2015. The UK 100 index may already have bottomed out at 5900 yesterday following a 6.5% decline as the polls began to turn against Remain. Are there further gains to come? I wrote 2 weeks ago about how markets tend to price in much of an outcome before it’s even announced. So don’t wait till Friday!

To stay abreast of the evolving and oft-confusing situation next week, and to know which stocks could benefit or suffer depending on the outcome, access our research here. You won’t regret it.

Mike van Dulken, Head of Research, 17 June