A UK Index name which has performed particularly well for Accendo clients this week is Greggs. We initially highlighted the shares as having Support at 1552p, trading within a 1539-1628p Range.

And they had already risen 3% in two days, even before yesterday’s 11% jump. The reason for yesterday’s bumper jump? A surprise and unscheduled profits warning, inspired by sausage rolls.

Not the usual negative profits warning, when a company says it won’t make as much profit as expected. This was the rarer positive type; the company expects even better profits in 2019.

Why? A very strong start to the year. Total sales in its latest seven weeks were 14.1% higher than the same period last year. On a  like-for-like same shop basis they were 9.6% better. Strong numbers, boosted by its new vegan-friendly sausage rolls.

The launch extended a strong end to 2018. Extensive sausage roll publicity boosted customer numbers and transactions. Growth may have slowed a little but look set to boost both first-half and full year profits.

All eyes on full year results on 7 March. Might we get even more positive information that pushes the shares even higher? In the meantime, our trade opportunities show paper gains of 15.0%, the shares trading 1786p as I write.

Fortuitous perhaps, but even before yesterday’s jump they were at 1602p, up 3.3%. This equated to 65% of the way back to early Feb highs of 1628p, 4.9% above our entry point.

At Greggs’ current price of 1786p (as high as 1815p this morning), yesterday’s news has taken them a whole lot further, easily beating our expectations. They they might even have further to run.

Whether you are looking for rebound candidates, ranges, breakouts, momentum, results or dividends, get access to our research Gold Pass to ensure that you are in a position to consider all our future trade opportunities.

Mike van Dulken, Head of Research, 20 Feb 2019