Macro observations

• Markets are easing back into the swing of things after Easter.
• US Fed’s Yellen to speak Tuesday 29th in the afternoon (16:30 GMT). This will be watched closely given some surprise moves into hawkish territory by some Fed members.
• Lots of US jobs data this week, in focus after some other disappointing recent prints, but note that the US lobs
• Watch the USD due to all of the above – if an April US rate hike gets mentioned we could see fresh US dollar strength, while if Yellen sticks to her dovish guns then the USD’s recovery of the last 10 days will be under threat.

Key data this week (Sign up here to get our daily live macro-calendar)

UK

• Thur: GDP, Lloyds Business Barometer, GFK Consumer Confidence, Mortgage Approvals
• Fri: Nationwide House Prices, PMI Manufacturing

US

• Tue: S&P/Case Shiller index, Consumer Confidence index
• Wed: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change
• Thur: Challenger Job Cuts, Jobless Claims, ISM Milwaukee, Chicago PMI
• Fri: Jobs Report (incl. Nonfarm Payrolls), PMI Manufacturing, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Uni. of Michigan Sentiment

EU (data for Eurozone unless otherwise stated)

• Tue: M3 Money Supply
• Wed: Economic Confidence, Business Climate Indicator
• Thur: CPI Core
• Fri: Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Rate

GBP/USD (‘Cable’)

GBP/USD (daily)

GBP/USD (hourly)

Technicals (based on daily price data unless otherwise stated)

• Cable is stalling at the 50-day MA on Tuesday
• A more hawkish US Fed, if confirmed by Yellen on Tuesday, would press on GBP/USD and likely see a return to 1.407 support in the coming days.
• However, bulls hoping for dovish reassurances will look for a bounce towards 1.4475, a break above which would signal a bullish head & shoulders reversal and potential recovery towards 1.5.

GBP/EUR

GBP/EUR (daily)   

GBP/EUR (hourly)

Technicals (based on daily price data unless otherwise stated)

• Testing 1.2735 resistance, while March’s fakeout above the 50-day MA keeps bearish pressure up on GBP/EUR
• Daily RSI has converging highs and lows
• Hourly RSI is nearly overbought, coinciding with the pair trading at the ceiling of its March falling channel

EUR/USD

EUR/USD (daily)

EUR/USD (hourly)

Technicals (based on daily price data unless otherwise stated)

• 17 March falling highs resistance still in play.
• Note, however, the rising trend line from Dec 2015 keeping the 4-month volatile uptrend alive.
• A break below the trend line might put downside towards 1.09 on the cards. Fed-dependent!