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UK Index Tobacco: Smoke, but not necessarily a fire

UK Index Tobacco shares are sharply lower (down 4% to 7%), weighing on the blue-chip index into the close (7.6% of index) as investors interpret any US regulatory efforts to dampen demand for cigarettes, by reducing nicotine to non-addictive levels, as a negative for the industry.

This may be an overreaction, however.

  1. Firstly, this is a plan to start a public dialogue focused on protecting children and reducing tobacco related disease and death.
  2. Secondly, the fine print suggests balancing regulation of existing products with encouraging innovation for future less harmful options.
  3. Thirdly, there may be exemptions and delayed implementation of existing rules that offers some relief.
  4. Fourthly, it may require input from other bodies.
  5. Lastly, never underestimate the lobbying power of the might tobacco industry.

It might not sound great, but it doesn’t read like the industry is destined to go up in smoke.

Shares are already well off their worst levels.

Mike van Dulken, Head of Research, 28 July 2017

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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