This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
It was an eventful week for the UK 100 , many China-exposed shares seeing significant volatility due to their exposure to the on-again-off-again US-China trade war. With many metals & mining companies reporting next week, here’s what we’re paying attention to.
The reporting calendar for next week is chock full of Mining companies, both big and small. Here at Accendo Markets, our in-house research team publishes a comprehensive Week in Advance for all clients, a list of the most significant companies reporting next week.
Today a client called me to ask how come Anglo American (AAL) is reporting next Tuesday, having already reported yesterday. He thought he’d spotted a mistake.
However, not all corporate reports are equal. Anglo American’s update on Thursday was a Q2 Production Update, quite different from the Q2/H1 Earnings Report it is scheduled to publish next Thursday.
Production Updates are like the Trading Statements many companies issue before full quarterly or annual results. A warm-up act if you like. The production/trading update might point to how much iron ore or copper it dug up and sold, and may even give guidance for the rest of the quarter/year, but it won’t include anything on revenues or profits.
So, are Production Updates useless for investors? On the contrary. They can be used as a preview for the full earnings report. How is the trading environment? Are there any significant production or labour issues? In some cases they are even more important, especially if they increase or cut guidance for the year.
A company never wants all the bad news to come in one go, so market watchers are now well used to reading trading updates for suggestive hints as to what might happen when the full report is released. After all, the point of market investment is to have a competitive edge, which means doing you research to understand how company shares could behave on the day of the next quarterly report.
Does Anglo American’s Q2 Production Report suggest anything about how AAL shares might behave next Thursday? Most figures were reported healthy, with copper production +12%, iron ore +2%, diamonds +3. AAL also reiterated guidance except at Kumba Iron Ore mine, where it was cut by 2.2%. It even increased guidance for some precious metals.
Now, be aware that a cut to production guidance isn’t the only thing moving AAL shares. A stronger USD, falling metals prices and worries over Sino-US trade confrontation are adding to the Anglo American’s misery, with AAL shares now ~18% off their June highs.
Is there end in sight? Will Anglo American bounce off April support? Or will the worries over China lead the Miner to new lows? And keep in mind that Anglo isn’t the only miner reporting next week. Other significant metals & mining companies are also issuing production reports, including copper miner Antofagasta (25 July), silver miner Fresnillo (25 July) and steelmaker Evraz (26 July) and several more.
Whatever happens, these reports present exciting tradeable opportunities on the UK Index . If you have an opinion about how Mining shares might behave next week, get in touch with me by accessing our research and trade ideas and we can discuss your investment options next week.
Avin Nirula, Trader at Accendo Markets, 20 July 2018
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Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of ResearchComments are closed.