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Home / Blog / blog / Company Focus || Has Fevertree lost its fizz? || 24-01-20

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Company Focus || Has Fevertree lost its fizz? || 24-01-20

Premium mixer firm, Fevertree, looks to have lost its fizz after a massive 27 per cent share price drop this week. The flat share price, now standing at 1566.84p at the time of writing, has come about as the drinks distributor released a profit warning revealing its 2019 results would be lower than expected.

Fevertree expect 2019’s revenue to come in at £260.5m, lower than previous guidance of £266 to £268 million, which overall represents 10 per cent growth but is lower than expectations and a sharp contrast from 2018’s 40 per cent growth.

So, is the glass half empty for the drinks manufacturer or can it still regain its sparkle?

Arguably, one of the most worrying elements of its latest results is that growth in the UK fell by one per cent. Overseas, Fevertree has fared better – its US market has grown by 33 per cent and in Europe its growth stands at 16 per cent. Fevertree is a British brand, its niche has been carved out in the quintessentially English gin and tonic and the UK accounts for almost half of its revenue so the fall in UK sales, especially over the festive period, is disappointing.

Fevertree has also pinned its hopes on cracking the US market but, while growth is up, not everyone is convinced that it will be possible to replicate UK success at the other side of the Atlantic. Dark spirits are the market leader in the US, and according to Bloomberg, the gin market has not taken off in the same way that it had in the UK, a fact recognised by Fevertree’s Chief Executive Tim Warrilow who has predicted lower growth expectations and pledged to cut prices in the States to boost sales.

Analysts JP Morgan cited the lower US growth expectations as one of the reasons for downgrading Fevertree’s rating to neutral, saying that it “created fundamental concerns for the investment case.” Other analysts are also concerned – Deustche Bank has slashed its target price from 2200p to 1650p and Liberium Capital has reaffirmed an ‘under review’ rating. Hargreaves Lansdowne were also pessimistic, describing the full year trading update as ‘ugly reading’ and saying that “falling sales in the UK will spark fears the gin boom has turned to bust.”

The premium drinks brand, which was established in 2005, quickly carved out a niche for itself, helped along by the growing popularity of gin as the tipple of choice. Recently, though, the market has become increasingly overcrowded with big names such as Coca-Cola Schweppes launching their own high-end mixers and supermarkets bringing out lower-priced premium tonics.

Some have pointed out though that, in the context of the wider market, Fevertree’s performance is not as desultory as the share price drop suggests. UK retail sales as a whole fell by 0.6% set against a growth expectation of 0.7% and the drinks firm has seen strong growth in recent years. Warrilow is taking proactive action against the slump – along with slashing US prices, it has launched a pitch to find a new advertising agency in the UK to try and regain its competitive edge over Coca Cola Schweppes. Whether that will be the tonic that the drinks distributor needs to add a shot to its share price remains to be seen.

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