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Cobham: You’re kidding me, right?

Shareholders in Cobham (COB) must have thought it couldn’t possibly get any worse when a January profits warning claimed the dividend. Five weeks on, however, the ever-struggling defence and aerospace engineer has managed to add insult to injury with yet another one at a time when patience is no better than wafer thin. In fact, with the shares down another 20%, not only have some of the long-term loyal clearly jumped from what they regard a sinking ship, but some of January’s bargain hunters have likely followed them overboard.

Cobham

Today’s update suggests not only will 2016 profits miss targets, but 2017 will remain tough. To make matters worse, the key KC-46 tanker programme in conjunction with Boeing is set to cost Cobham £150m more than anticipated. And just to stick the knife in, a balance sheet review has uncovered the need for myriad exceptional non-cash goodwill and intangible impairment charges, totalling a whopping £574m, to “reset the group to a more prudent level”. Any bargain hunters today will hope that this is code for throwing the kitchen sink at the situation, clearing the decks for a fresh start free of nasties.

Back trading near 14yr lows, the shares have breached 8-month support at 130p, ignoring May lows of 125p on the way down. Off their worst levels implies fresh interest in today’s latest potential recovery trade. Good luck to them with 2 March FY results just round the corner.

Mike van Dulken, Head of Research, 16 Feb 2017

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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