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Chips are Down for Burger Chain; Takeaway Takeover Becomes War: 25-10-19

Fast food investors are not lovin it at the moment as McDonalds share price has slumped five per cent this week in the wake of its Q3 results.

The burger giant posted growth in the US of just 4.8%, down from both the previous quarter and analysts’ expectations, despite same store global sales growth of 5.9%. Share prices, which had been up 18% through 2019, dipped to $198.91 at the time of writing. Offers and promotions, alongside a 3% menu price rise, had been used to boost sales across the US according to Chief Executive, Steve Easterbrook, but these were driving up expenses for the chain. So, can McDonalds still deliver for investors or is its stock losing its zing?

There’s no doubt that its been operating in a tough climate in the US – fast food competition is fierce and research from NPD Group Inc showed that visits to US fast food burger restaurants were down by 1% across the board in August. And it has made some serious investments, particularly in technology, such as digital menu boards and self-order kiosks which, while they have cost in the short-term, they have potential to boost profits in the long-term. The chain is also investing heavily in delivery services, which has proved popular with overseas markets, teaming up with UberEats, DoorDash and GrubHub and it aims to hit $4 billion in global sales this year.

Analysts remain reasonably optimistic about the chain – pointing out that its business model stands it in good stead. McDonalds owns rather than leases around three quarters of its restaurants, and around 90% are operated by franchise partners who buy their supplies from McDonalds. Since the franchised model was introduced, operating margins for the firm have risen from 31.2% to 43% and as most franchises are on a 20-year timeframe many analysts see the net debt position as manageable. With a prospective yield of 2.4% for 2020, and the strength of a 70-year old household name brand, McDonalds could still be in line for future growth although in an overcrowded fast food market there are no guarantees.

Fast food delivery portal, Just Eat, has also been in the spotlight this week after it rejected a £4.9 bn hostile takeover bid from investment firm Prosus. Its share price leapt 24 per cent, to 753.00p at the time of writing, as it looks like the delivery website could be getting embroiled in a bidding war. Just Eat turned down Prosus’s offer saying it ‘significantly undervalued’ its business, and instead it urged investors to back its proposed merger with Dutch firm Takeaway.com. So, will Just Eat’s stock rise even higher amidst all this attention? Analysts seem to think so – one has suggested that a winning bid would need to offer over Just Eat’s current share value to sort this out. Top Just Eat investors SM Trust, Cat Rock and Aberdeen Standard Investments, who between them control one fifth of the site’s stock, have all weighed in saying that they would consider Prosus’s proposal if it upped its offer. Aberdeen Standard Investments, however, are demanding a price tag of £5.8 billion to consider the takeover  – whether that figure exceeds Prosus’s appetite remains to be seen.

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