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Accendo’s Foreign Exchange Forecasts, Tuesday 8 May 2018

The strongest factors influencing the direction and momentum of the FX rate are major macroeconomic indicators, chief among them the changes in the key interest rates. Higher interest rates make the currency more attractive and lead to a stronger currency. In the UK, interest rate policy is determined by the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC),…

Challenger Banks: Inevitable Consolidation

Unsurprising news from UK challenger banks this morning, as CYBG has made a £1.6B all-share takeover offer for Virgin Money (a 15% premium to VM’s market value). The deal structure (i.e. full share, no cash, small premium) raises a question whether new financial upstarts, that sought to challenge the UK’s Big 4 banking titans, stand…

Trade War: What is it good for?

Tariffs and trade are in the air as investors and analysts are discussing a now trilateral confrontation, with Donald Trump’s administration now taking the trade fight to both China and the European Union, at the same time. Talk about chutzpah! But what exactly does that mean for the average investor? With US Treasury Secretary Steve…

Explained: Results season lingo

Q1 results season isn’t quite over and I’ve had lots of questions about the lingo used by company management when discussing their recent performance. So I’ll have a go at explaining some of the most commonly used, help you better understand the results being published next week. I may even do a Part 2 next…

IAG: Strong FX tailwinds, and nowt on Norwegian

IAG shares top the UK 100 this morning with Q1 results helping them extend their recent breakout from 633p. Today’s 5.7% jump takes the recent rebound from 590p to 14.7%. More importantly, however, we are close to a retest of Jan highs of 680p. Will this remain a hurdle (so far the case) or can…

Smith & Nephew: Not a Niece Result

Smith & Nephew shares plunged over 7% after the company cut 2018 full-year guidance from the expected 3-4% down to 2-3% range. The medtech company blames “mixed performance” in the US and other established markets, which saw negative underlying revenue growth (-2%). Q1 group revenues may well have grown by 5%, but with underlying growth…

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