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With the UK election excitement now all but over, markets now have an event of far greater significance to turn their attention to. Having been officially triggered back in March, Brexit will begin with a bang when UK-EU negotiations get underway in Brussels next week.
These negotiations, expected to be completed by then end of 2018, will have a meaningful impact on UK financial markets as both sides push for the best deal for their respective territories.
But just what exactly will the monthly, weekly or even daily twists and turns of the intense diplomatic negotiations mean for markets over the coming months?
The impact will likely be felt straight from the off, as political sledgehammers come in from both sides of the Channel. Furthermore, the Queen’s speech – the official opening of the UK Parliament – is set to take place on Wednesday, with (or possibly without) a Conservative-DUP government in place. With the UK government already fragile, we could see Sterling react immediately.
The complexities of negotiations between the UK and the EU mean that there are a huge number of sectors which could be affected by the talks.
Nothing highlights this more than the stocks that reacted to the election result. Several of the worst performing stocks on the day of the election results were UK Housebuilders, a high momentum sector traded in very high daily volume . Taylor Wimpey (TW.) was the worst performing UK 100 stock, down 3.3%, while Barratt Developments (BDEV) also occupied the worst five performers, finishing 2.3% lower.
Another sector that moved significantly was the vastly popular Banking sector, often viewed as a proxy for the state of the UK economy and reliant on access to financial services on the continent and vice versa. The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) closed 2.5% lower on the Friday after the election, the fourth worst performing stock on the UK 100 .
As well as stocks, indices could also be susceptible to movements. Both the UK 100 and the German DAX are very reactive to the movements of foreign exchange markets, so the crucial GBP/EUR pairing – which will closely track the negotiations – could have a significant impact on both indices.
When it comes to the final deal (if one is actually reached without a transitional period of up to … years being put in place) these sectors could be massively affected, for better or for worse. And what’s more, all three of these sectors are integral to the UK economy while making up the cornerstone of many a portfolio.
But more than anything, the beginning of Brexit negotiations the means that you will need a regular and reliable source of information; a source that can keep you updated with the latest market-moving news in time and on time, not just any time. And that’s where we come in.
On the day of the election, Accendo Markets clients will have received a market update from their broker over the phone or via email before the opening of the London Stock Exchange, informing them of the key results, while on the day Article 50 was triggered, clients will have
Included in the service is our award-winning research offering, providing the latest insight into some of the most interesting share price movements of the day. For a taster of just what we offer, sign up here to trial our research for a fortnight. With no obligations, now is the perfect time to find out how we can complement your current trading strategy.
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Amrit Panesar, Senior Trader, 16 June
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
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