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BP shares are almost unmoved for their first session of 2018, even after today’s clarification that a reduction in US federal tax (21% vs 35%), as part of President Trump’s long awaited reform efforts, would mean it talking a short-term $1.5bn hit. Furthermore, the complexities of both the oil major itself and the biggest US tax overhaul in 30 years mean that the ultimate impact remains at the mercy of multiple provisions and revaluations of deferred tax assets and liabilities.
That said, the company has merely taken the lead from a long list of corporates saying reforms will be long-term positive for future earnings and, wanting to start 2018 with a clean slate, confident enough to take a one-off non-cash charge in Q4. Expect more details in FY results on 6 Feb.
Whilst there is always the chance that the necessary hit turns out to be more, you would imagine the company has been conservative, meaning more likelihood that it in fact turns out to be less. Buoying the shares also is oil prices holding their uptrends, at or close to their best some May June 2015 helped by geopolitical unrest in Iran and extended OPEC/NOPEC supply/production agreements.
Mike van Dulken, Head of Research, 2 Jan 2018
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
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