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Why I don’t envy Mario Draghi

Mario Draghi’s speech at the European Parliament is essentially an exercise in reassurance, because no one – not even the central banks – knows what’s going on at the moment. The market simply doesn’t stay in one place long enough to be prescribed the right treatment. So we must wait until March for genuine talk…

FX – The week ahead, Monday 15 Feb

GBP/USD (‘Cable’) GBP/USD (15-min)   GBP/USD (daily)   Macro observations Dovish US Fed rhetoric still the main driver for USD strength Bank of England more likely to hike UK rates than cut them in 2016 (yet more likely it’ll do nothing) Technicals (based on daily price data unless otherwise stated) Trading around 7-yr lows Circa…

Reckitt Benckiser: Mind the gap

Reckitt Benckiser shares have furthered their bounce from 4-month lows after its shares gapped 5% higher this morning. This comes as investors cheered consensus-beating FY15 results at both the top and bottom-line, a 12% hike to the dividend and management maintaining its guidance for comparable revenues up 4-5% this year and for moderate margin expansion in…

Silver lining to cloudy Banking outlook

Analyst summary – 12 Feb 2016 Last week we wrote about handsome share price gains (10-35%) for many of the base metal miners (Anglo American, Glencore, Antofagasta) who benefited from a weaker US dollar (a boon for commodity prices) on fading expectations the US Fed could raise interest rates at all in 2016. Yay! Good…

The gold price today: From saucer to salad bowl

That hitherto slightly unreliable port in a storm, spot gold (XAU/USD), is looking that much lighter than its underlying physical commodity in February. But what’s supporting the gold price today is exactly what should have supported the gold price last August, when we briefly got a taster of the sort of equity market volatility that’s…

Rolls Royce: Bird strike averted

Shares in Rolls Royce (RR) have finally broken above 9-month falling highs to retest a 600p handle as markets reward CEO Warren East for the difficult decision to slash the FY dividend by a whopping 50%, well beyond expectations of 25%, joining commodity sector peers – quite rightly – in doing what’s necessary to ensure…

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