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A fortnight into his tenure President Trump, unsurprisingly, has remained a divisive figure both in the US and abroad. However, if there’s one thing that you can’t fault Trump for, it is his unshaking commitment to stick to his campaign trail pledges: Ending US support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP); beginning the process of building a border wall with Mexico; repealing Obamacare; even a widely condemned US immigration restriction.
While many of these already completed promises have been met with a negative reaction from commentators and markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Index finally broke its 6 week stalemate to top 20,000 points for the first time in history last week, only days after he took office.
Yet the question remains, what has the 45th President of the US got left in his arsenal to buoy financial markets?
Infrastructure: Spend, Spend, Spend
One of Trump’s biggest promises he made to the US population throughout campaigning, and indeed in his acceptance speech in November, was that he would oversee the rebuilding of American infrastructure. Whilst the President has already signed executive orders to complete multiple oil pipelines that had been started initially by the Obama administration, he has yet to unleash the full range of measures he promised two months ago, including the rebuilding of roads, bridges and railway lines.
Tax Cuts: Cut, Cut, Cut
The second part of Trump’s promised fiscal behemoth is to implement a wide range of tax cuts for both individuals and corporate entities. The President has previously promised that his administration will look into slashing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15% in an attempt to promote increased investment domestically. Those companies that choose to stay in the US, even repatriate, as opposed to moving abroad – something Trump has vehemently opposed – stand to benefit immensely, while by cutting personal taxes the President will hope to spur increased retail spending.
Dodd-Frank: Repeal, Repeal, Repeal
Finally, whilst the President has alluded to repealing the wide-ranging legal framework of the Dodd-Frank Act, drawn up in the aftermath of the 2008 Financial Crisis to reign in overly risky strategies of the country’s financial sector, he has yet to fully deliver on his pledge. Financials on both sides of the Atlantic have rallied significantly since his election, already pricing in the potential impact of the scaling back of the Dodd-Frank measures.
While there are many promises that, if fulfilled, could see markets rally in reaction, there are of course other Trump pledges which could in fact have a very different effect on financial markets – most notably his pledge to brand China a currency manipulator in what could result in a trade war with the world’s second largest economy.
So far, the President has not gone so far as to brandish China with that label, instead directing his trade chief to label Germany as a manipulator, however he is showing signs of moving the US into a more protectionist position as he retains his anti-globalisation views.
However, with only two weeks of Trump’s 208 week term down, there is still plenty of time for the President to follow through on the remainder of his campaign trail pledges, whether positive or negative for markets.
Henry Croft, Research Analyst, 1 February 2017
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