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This week, I have the pleasure of writing about an astonishing week for global financial markets. Not only have we seen one of the largest IPOs of all time take place with Snap Inc. but we’ve also seen fresh all-time times on indices on both sides of the Atlantic.
Of course, the plaudits will go to Wall Street’s darling, the Dow Jones. The 30-strong index has had quite a 6 months and, having broken through 20,000 points for the first time in late January, the index has already conquered 21k with ease after a quite astonishing rally on Wednesday.
The reason for this latest rally? As has quite often been the case since November, it was due to a speech made by Donald Trump. However, most noteworthy about this latest Trump-inspired rally is the fact that the President provided very few details to actually warrant the stock market advance. In his speech to Congress in the early hours of our Wednesday morning, ‘the Donald’ reiterated he was looking into a $1 trillion infrastructure investment, although in the end not much else was said. Investors and the media alike had expected some details of his proposed tax policy changes to be revealed at the very least, however very little mention of this was made. Yet the markets still rallied.
With many expecting announcements on tax reforms and banking sector deregulation in the not too distant future, could Trump really give the markets something to rally about soon by divulging some key details?
The US Federal Reserve has also played a key part in this rally. Hawkish sentiment in speeches made by policymakers has been slowly building over the past week and Fed futures, the key rate hike probability gauge, has jumped from only 30% last week to over 80% today according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Their two day policy meeting is now less than a fortnight away and could prove to be all-important for a further rally in global equities to take place. Is a rate hike all but priced in on global equity markets? Could Non-Farm Payrolls data next week throw a spanner in the works? Either way, it’s an exciting time for Fed-watchers.
But it’s not just the US that has been on an upward trajectory over the past five trading sessions. The UK’s own blue chip, the UK 100 , has also revisited all-time highs this week thanks in part to the Wall Street rally but also thanks to some surprise names at the top of the index. My colleague has written an excellent piece about this week’s winners here, but I’ll look ahead to next week.
Over the coming five days, we have a raft of Insurers reporting FY results. Against the run of play, the sector had a disappointing week after the government ruled a key rate for injury payouts was to be changed, much to the dislike of UK Insurers. Could we see next week’s results for major players such as Direct Line and Legal & General (just to name a couple) provide a boon for this the underperforming sector of the past five sessions and, potentially, help the UK Index to move higher in the process?
An exciting week is definitely in store, but will your current broker make sure you’re kept informed of all important events? To make sure that you don’t miss out on the key news – events, results and more – sign up here to receive our research here and be informed of the potential market drivers for the next two weeks in time and on time, not just some time.
Avin Nirula, Trader, 3 March
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