This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
After a long Easter weekend, European markets have returned to an announcement from UK Prime Minister Theresa May that she is calling a snap UK general election for 8 June. This has come as a surprise for many political commentators, given that an election was not scheduled to take place until 2020 at the latest, an entire year after Brexit negotiations are scheduled to finish.
As it now stands, the UK will head to the polls only days before formal Brexit negotiations with the European Union are scheduled to begin. PM May will be hoping that her Conservative party defeats current opposition party Labour comprehensively, to increase the Tory majority in Parliament and strengthen the government’s negotiating position against the EU. On the other side of the coin, however, is the prospect that anti-Brexit parties such as the Liberal Democrats win greater than expected support, potentially derailing the Government’s hopes of a pro-Brexit majority.
Upon the news that May was to give a speech on Tuesday morning, Sterling fell sharply, fueled by speculation of what the announcement would entail. However, after the official calling of a snap general election, Sterling pared losses against the Euro and the US Dollar to trade fresh 2-month highs against both currencies.
While the UK election will now likely dominate headlines for the rest of the week, there is still the small matter of an election on the European continent on Sunday. With polls in France now indicating that the election has become a four horse race following the meteoric rise of the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melanchon, the stakes are being raised. Should Melanchon and his far-right counterpart Marine Le Pen pass through to the second round run off, France would be faced with two vehemently anti-EU candidates, likely at the very least to renegotiate France’s position within the bloc, while the most extreme case would be the chance of ‘Frexit‘.
All this before even mentioning ongoing geopolitical risk within Syria and in the Korean Peninsula, with the US monitoring the actions of governments in both regions. While tensions may have eased from highs of last week, the propensity for quick escalations will likely see USD investors keeping a close eye on events.
Macroeconomic data is lighter on the ground than usual given the shortened trading week in Europe, however we still have several important releases, particularly for the Euro. The final March reading of Eurozone Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) at 10am on Wednesday is expected to confirm a cooling of the inflation rate to 1.5% from 2%, relieving pressure on the European Central Bank to remove some accommodative measures before the end of 2017 ahead of their monetary policy meeting next week.
On Thursday, Eurozone Consumer Confidence (10am) will provide the latest insight into the mindset of the European consumer, with consensus expecting the first April reading to better January’s 2-year high reading.
Finally, UK Retail Sales will be released at 9:30am on Friday, with consensus forecasting a slight retreat from February’s recovery from January’s weakest reading since 2013 to around the mean reading of just over 3%.
Key data this week (Sign up here to get our daily live macro-calendar)
—
Intl Economic Announcements
13:30 Housing Starts, Building Permits (US)
14:15 Industrial Production (US)
—
Intl Economic Announcements
10:00 CPI (EZ)
12:00 Mortgage Applications
15:30 Oil Inventories (US)
—
Intl Economic Announcements
02:30 Producer Prices (DE)
10:00 Construction Output (EZ)
13:30 Philly Fed, Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims (US)
15:00 Consumer Confidence (EZ)
15:00 Leading Indicators (US)
—
UK Economic Announcements
09:30 Retail Sales
Intl Economic Announcements
8-9am Manufacturing & Services PMI (FR, DE, EZ)
14:45 Manufacturing and Services PMI (US)
15:00 Existing Home Sales (US)
18:00 Baker Hughes Rig Count (US)
For information on deliverable FX, including how you can save thousands on currency exchange, put in a call to our trading floor on 0203 051 7461. It’s all part of the service!
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
Comments are closed.