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Accendo’s Foreign Exchange Forecasts, Monday 1 August

Foreign exchange

Macro observations

Markets pulling back a little on Monday following a disappointing UK Manufacturing PMI print that has fueled the UK’s Brexit-related growth concerns at a time when markets are increasingly unable to rely on central banks to keep the cogs greased. So far we’ve had notable inaction from the Bank of England, US Fed and Bank of Japan, all of whom appear to be waiting to see what the other two will do! That said, it looks increasingly likely we’ll get some form of pre-emptive stimulus (pre-emptive because any  Brexit ills won’t be confirmed by the hard data until October) from the BoE on Thursday, but the question remains as to what that will be. A straight interest rate cut is perhaps the worst idea but there are other options. Whatever happens though, the GBP could be set to weaken again versus the Euro and US Dollar. This is likely being priced in right now.

 


 

Key data this week (Sign up here to get our daily live macro-calendar)

Monday 1 Aug

Intl Economic Announcements
15:00    Construction Spending, ISM Prices Paid (US)

Tuesday 2 Aug

UK Economic Announcements
09:30    PMI Construction

Intl Economic Announcements
10:00    Producer Price Index (EU)
13:30    Personal Consumption Expenditures; Personal Income & Spending (US)

Wednesday 3 Aug

UK Economic Announcements
00:01    BRC Shop Price Index

Intl Economic Announcements
10:00    Retail Sales (EU)
12:00    MBA Mortgage Applications (US)
15:00    ISM Non-Manufacturing (US)
15:30    Crude Oil Inventories (US)

Thursday 4 Aug

UK Economic Announcements
12:00    BoE Inflation,  Interest Rate Decision, Minutes

Int. Economic Announcements
13:30    Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Factory Orders (US)

Friday 5 Aug

UK Economic Announcements
08:30    Halifax House Price Index

Int. Economic Announcements
07:00    Factory Orders (GER)
08:00    Consumer Credit (US)
13:30    Non-Farm Payrolls, Balance of Trade, Unemployment Rate (US)


 

GBP/USD (‘Cable’)

GBP/USD (daily)

GBPUSD hourly (-)

Technicals

  • Bounce of the 200-hour moving average
  • Rising lows through July could be broken on Thursday

 

GBP/EUR

GBP/EUR (daily)
GBPEUR hourly (-)

Technicals

  • Falling channel with steeper falling highs through end-Jul
  • Resistance at the 50-hour moving average
  • RSI bounced from oversold

 

EUR/USD

EUR/USD (daily)

EURUSD hourly (-)

Technicals

  • Potential bullish flag consolidation
  • RSI trending down but still bullish
  • key support at 1.1167

 

For information on deliverable FX, including how you can save thousands on currency exchange, put in a call to our trading floor on 0203 051 7461. It’s all part of the service!

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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