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After the ECB kicked things off a fortnight ago, this week sees a trifecta of monetary policy updates from the world’s largest economies in a busy week for central bankers, still trying to process the potential economic impact of the new leader of the world’s largest economy as they meet for the first time in 2017.
The Bank of Japan begins proceedings in the early hours of Tuesday morning, reporting their stance on monetary policy and any movement away from their accomodative policy. Whilst unlikely to provoke any major impact on European currencies, it could see the safe haven asset pairing of USD/JPY affected as a result.
The US Federal Reserve are to follow their Japanese counterparts on Wednesday, however Janet Yellen and her colleagues are expected to stand pat after December’s rate hike. Investors instead will be looking at the rhetoric that emerges from the meeting, with a particular focus on whether incoming members of the Open Market Committee agree with the bullish forecasts for three rate hikes over the course of 2017 and for any mention of the T-word – Trump. So far the central bank has not commented on the potential impact of the proposed fiscal stimulus measures from the new President on their decision making process; will they continue their vow of silence?
The Bank of England’s Super Thursday rounds things off, as the the UK’s central bank updates its monetary policy and provides its key inflation report at 12:00pm. The latter’s impact on the former will be greater than ever as Governor Mark Carney and the MPC assess the impact of the still weak Pound on inflationary pressures in the UK. Markets will be looking to see if Carney and co. are happy to tolerate weak Sterling-induced inflation above their target of 2% and maintain a neutral stance on monetary policy, with expectations no rate hikes in the near future weighing on GBP sentiment. In contrast, however, should the committee have lowered their tolerance for an overshooting of their inflation target, we could see greater hawkish commentary coming alongside the potential for interest rate hikes in the not-so-distant future, providing a short term boost for Sterling.
But while the central banks may grab the headlines this week, macro data could provide FX markets with direction in equal measure. Eurozone inflation its expected to continue creeping towards 2% although rising German inflation (potentially breaking the 2% barrier) could be of cause for concern for the ECB; economic pressures in the engine room of the Eurozone could impact Mario Draghi’s hopes of the central bank remaining politically neutral during 2017. US Non-Farm Payrolls makes its monthly appearance on Friday after the Fed’s meeting, ruling it out of the FOMC’s considerations this time around, although the metric will as always have a bearing on Fed policy at the group’s next meeting on March 15.
Finally, geopolitics will continue to play an active role in currency space as Trump begins his second week in the Oval Office and Brexit dominates the UK government’s agenda. Tuesday marks the first UK Parliamentary debate on the triggering of Article 50, coming just after a week after the Supreme Court ruled against the government in a landmark legal case. While it is expected that parliament will approve the enactment of the legislation to begin the UK’s divorce process from the EU, the debates will provide soundbites aplenty on Brexit from both sides of the House of Commons. Trump, in the mean time, will continue to be Trump. Having stuck to his pledges made on the campaign trail so far, might his week see the unleashing of his fiscal stimulus on markets?
Key data this week (Sign up here to get our daily live macro-calendar)
Chinese New Year
Intl Economic Announcements
SUN
23:50 Retails Sales (JP)
MON
10:00 Confidence Indicators (EZ)
13:00 CPI (DE)
13:30 Personal Consumption (US)
15:00 Pending Home Sales (US)
15:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (US)
23:30 Unemployment (JP)
23:50 Industrial Production (JP)
—
UK Economic Announcements
00:01 GfK Consumer Confidence
09:30 Mortgage Approvals
Intl Economic Announcement
03:00 Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Update
06:30 GDP (FR)
07:00 Retail Sales (DE)
07:45 CPI (FR)
08:55 Unemployment (DE)
10:00 GDP, CPI (EZ)
14:00 House Price Index (US)
14:45 Chicago PMI (US)
15:00 Consumer Confidence (US)
—
UK Economic Announcements
07:00 Nationwide House Prices
09:30 Manufacturing PMI
Intl Economic Announcements
01:00 Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (CN)
8-9am Manufacturing PMI (Europe)
12:00 Mortgage Applications (US)
13:15 ADP Employment Change (US)
15:00 ISM Surveys (US)
15:30 Crude Oil Inventories (US)
19:00 US Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Update
—
UK Economic Announcements
09:30 Construction PMI
12:00 Bank of England Monetary Policy Update
Intl Economic Announcements
12:30 Challenger Job Cuts (US)
13:30 Productivity, Labour Costs, Jobless Claims (US)
23:50 BoJ Minutes (JP)
—
UK Economic Announcements
09:30 Services PMI
Intl Economic Announcements
00:30 Services PMI (JP)
01:45 Caixin PMI Manufacturing (China)
8-9am Services PMI (Europe)
10:00 Retail Sales (EZ)
13:30 Non-Farm Payrolls (US)
14:45 Services PMI (US)
15:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing, Factory Orders (US)
18:00 Baker Hughes Rig Count (US)
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