This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
With the Bank of Japan rounding off global central bank meetings for another month, this week, policymakers at the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will be paraded in front of investors in order to convey the next steps for monetary policy normalisation.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen (Tuesday; 4:50pm) is the most high profile speaker during the early part of the week, with the resident New Yorker delivering a keynote address in Ohio. The influential central banker could provide the clearest signal yet that the Fed will look to deliver its third and final forecast rate hike of the year at its December meeting, making it the third year-end rate hike in succession.
Since the FOMC’s meeting last week, the implied probability of a rate hike, per Fed Fund Futures, has increased to 60% from a pre-meeting reading of 35% the week before. Should Yellen add further to the hawkish rhetoric that has emerged form the central bank after announcing the commencement of Quantitative Tightening (QT) last week, this could help to extend the US dollar rally from 33-month lows; hesitation could see post-FOMC greenback bullishness retreat.
Yellen is joined by fellow voter Evans, influential policymaker Mester (both 2:30pm) and new Atlanta Fed President Bostic (5:30pm) on Tuesday – the two latter members both become voting members in 2018 – while other speakers throughout the week include voters Kashkari (Wednesday; 2:15pm) and Harker (Friday; 4pm).
European Central Bank policymakers will be equally busy this week, with multiple members speaking in the run up to President Mario Draghi’s appearance alongside Governor Carney at the Bank of England on Friday (3:15pm).
Both central bank heads have become increasingly hawkish in recent months, culminating in the minutes from last week’s BoE MPC meeting warning investors that interest rates could rise sooner and by a larger amount than previously priced in.
The event – celebrating 20 years since the Bank of England was granted monetary policy independence – will see the two chiefs ‘in conversation’, reflecting on the events of the past two decades. However, will Carney and Draghi seize this opportunity to hint at future policy changes, spurring both Sterling and the Euro to fresh highs against the US dollar?
The timing of the two central bank heads’ appearance together couldn’t be more poignant, with UK-European relations moving front and centre once again following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s concessionary speech last week opening the door for the next stage of Brexit negotiations.
Brexit Minister David Davis will be travelling to Brussels to speak with his European counterpart Michel Barnier fresh from the PM’s announcement that the UK will seek a 2-year transitional agreement. While no exit bill has yet been agreed between the two parties, this highly contentious issue will most likely dominate the headlines, alongside rights for both British and EU workers abroad and security matters. All this before the all-important trade deal can be discussed.
Away from speakers, macroeconomic data releases may also drive investor sentiment towards monetary policy, with the most notable releases including the final reading of US Q2 GDP (Thursday; 1:30pm), the final reading of UK Q2 GDP (Friday; 9:30am) and Eurozone Inflation (Friday; 10am).
Key data this week (Sign up here to receive our daily live macro-calendar)
—
UK Economic Announcements
09:30 BBA Home Loans
Intl Economic Announcements
14:00 House Prices (US)
15:00 New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed (US)
—
UK Economic Announcements
11:00 CBI Retail Sales
Intl Economic Announcements
02:30 Industrial Profits (China)
07:00 Retail Sales (DE)
13:30 Durable Goods Orders (US)
15:30 Oil Inventories (US)
—
UK Economic Announcements
07:00 Nationwide House Prices
Intl Economic Announcements
07:00 GFK Consumer Confidence (DE)
10:00 Confidence surveys (EZ)
13:00 Inflation (DE)
13:30 GDP, Consumption, Jobless Claims (US)
16:00 Kansas City Fed (US)
UK Economic Announcements
00:00 GFK Consumer Confidence, Lloyds Business barometer
09:30 GDP, Consumer Borrowing, Mortgage Approvals
Intl Economic Announcements
00:30 Inflation, Retail Trade, Industrial Production (JP)
02:45 PMI Manufacturing (China)
08:55 Unemployment (DE)
10:00 Consumer Inflation (EZ)
13:30 Personal Income & Spending (US)
14:45 Chicago PMI (US)
15:00 UoM Consumer Confidence (US)
18:00 Baker Hughes Rig Count (US)
For information on deliverable FX, including how you can save thousands on currency exchange, put in a call to our trading floor on 0203 051 7461. It’s all part of the service!
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
Comments are closed.