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Foreign exchange markets have started the week with some gusto as we digest the French presidential election first round results. The pollsters have won some redemption from 2016’s nightmare as centrist independent candidate Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, the right wing leader of the National Front, won the highest and second-highest amount of votes, respectively. Despite the vote being one of the closest in decades, with only 4% separating the first and fourth-placed candidates, projections for the second round of voting see Macron as the winner, becoming France’s youngest ever president by a margin of just over 20%. This result would avoid the possibility of ‘Frexit’ – something that Le Pen has made a centerpiece of her campaign alongside leaving the Euro – as Macron, a Europhile, would look to strengthen France’s ties with the European Union.
The result has prompted a major reaction in the Eurozone’s common currency, which jumped by over 2% at the beginning of Asian trading to a 5-month high against the US dollar.
A rather timely meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday will likely prompt a much smaller reaction in the Euro than Sunday’s election result, especially given that no policy measures are expected to be changed at the meeting.
The focus on the Euro has left Sterling and the US dollar somewhat in the rear view mirror. The Pound has remained in a strong position against its US peer following on from the calling of the snap election, although the campaign trail is so far lightly trod.
While Theresa May’s Conservatives are widely expected to win, given their sizable lead in the polls over both Labour and the Liberal Democrats (in the absence of a major political scandal), the key issue will be the parliamentary majority that is won by the party. Even with the Lib Dems attempting to peddle the election as a second Brexit vote, hoping that disgruntled Remain voters will back the party, a strong win for the Tories could help Sterling rally as the likelihood of parliamentary hurdles dissipates; on the other side of the coin, the potential for a stronger opposition, galvanised by their hope of avoiding a ‘hard’ Brexit, may also be bullish. A worst case scenario may be something in the middle, with a strong showing for the Scottish National Party as they seek a second Scottish independence referendum. We’ll find out in 6 weeks’ time.
The US is continuing to exert pressure on North Korea, helping geopolitical climate to remain highly charged, but their attempts to engage greater cooperation with China is helping abate some fears about a protectionist Trump administration. A promise from President Trump that his long-awaited tax reform plan will be released this week may yet be something for the bulls to become enthused about; although with the Donald having so far been unable to meet investors’ high expectations for his administration’s economic reforms, will it be another disappointing showing from the President?
On the data front, releases of note this week include US Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), German CPI (Thursday) and the equivalent Eurozone figure, alongside Q1 GDP readings from the UK and the US (all Friday).
Key data this week (Sign up here to get our daily live macro-calendar)
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UK Economic Announcements
00:01 Rightmove House Prices
11:00 CBI Trends & Business Optimism
Intl Economic Announcement
SUNDAY
French Presidential Election First Round
MONDAY
09:00 IFO Surveys (DE)
13:30 Chicago Fed Activity (US)
14:00 Conference Board Leading Economic Index (CN)
15:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing (US)
UK Economic Announcements
09:30 Public Finances
Intl Economic Announcements
14:00 House Price Index (US)
15:00 Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, New Home Sales (US)
—
Intl Economic Announcements
02:30 CPI (AUS)
12:00 Mortgage Applications (US)
15:30 Oil Inventories (US)
—
UK Economic Announcements
11:00 CBI Sales
Intl Economic Announcements
02:00 Monetary Policy Update (JP)
10:00 Confidence Indicators (EZ)
12:45 Monetary Policy Update (EZ)
13:00 CPI (DE)
13:30 Durable Goods Orders, Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims (US)
15:00 Pending Home Sales (EZ)
16:00 Kansas City Fed (US)
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UK Economic Announcements
00:01 GfK Consumer Confidence, Lloyds Business Barometer
09:30 Q1 GDP, Index of Services
Intl Economic Announcements
00:30 CPI (JP)
00:50 Industrial Production, Retail Trade (JP)
06:30 GDP (FR)
10:00 CPI (EZ)
13:30 Q1 GDP, Personal Consumption Expenditure (US)
14:45 Chicago PMI (US)
15:00 University of Michigan Confidence (US)
18:00 Baker Hughes Rig Count (US)
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