8 Jul

Telegraph

• Mike van Dulken, of Accendo Markets: “The monthly US Non-Farm Payrolls is sure to take centre stage as it does each month. The NFP number itself is unlikely to fuel Fed plans for a rate hike given the Brexit headwind, even if it does rebound very strongly (from 38K to the usual 150-200K average), although another very weak figure would vindicate Fed Minutes that suggested fears about the US labour market, pushing out market rate hike expectations even further.”
• http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/08/pound-flounders-below-130-as-brexit-worries-linger-ahead-of-us-j/

7 Jul

Telegraph

• Despite the bounce in housebuilding stocks Mike van Dulken, of Accendo Markets, reminds investors that “little has changed”.  “UK housebuilders and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are delivering a surprise bounce this morning despite a seventh fund saying it had bolted its gates to investors wanting to cash out. This takes the value of frozen real estate funds to more than half of the sector’s £25bn total; both a good and bad thing. On the one had it’s like saying ‘don’t panic’, which simply makes investors want to cash out pronto for fear of being last out with the worst price. On the other hand it’s cleverly avoiding unnecessary selling pressure, meaning little has changed. “The decision to lock-in investors comes in response to rising demands to abandon bricks-and-mortar with investors fearful of the Brexit impact on the UK’s precious property market. However, with the liquid portion of the funds (cash + REIT shares) having been used up so quickly, fund managers have been obliged to call ‘STOP’ for fear of becoming forced sellers of the property they own at distressed prices, putting unnecessary pressure on real estate values. Investors may well remain concerned about the Brexit fallout, but the prompt action by fund managers who find themselves in a difficult position again (this happened in ‘07 and’ 08) is likely helping prevent a self-fulfilling prophecy of a market crash playing out.”
• http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/07/pound-languishes-below-130-amid-warnings-it-could-hit-parity-wit/

6 Jul

Herald Scotland

• MIKE van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, can be relied on to inject some mirth into his morning notes for investors. Commenting on the City update by housebuilder Persimmon, Mr van Dulken tapped into one of the weeks’s big celebrity stories – Chris Evans’ resignation from Top Gear – to highlight the kind of conditions that investors thrive on. The analyst said that investors “like corporate uncertainty only marginally more than they liked listening to Chris Evans’ shouting on a Sunday evening.”
• http://www.heraldscotland.com/business/14602630.The_Bottom_Line___faces_of_Scotland__39_s_business_future__and_another_mistaken_identity/

5 Jul

Interactive Investor

• Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, said the Standard Life move was “like a red flag to a panicky bull, failing miserably to retain calm among the sector’s retail faithful, simply adding fuel to post-Brexit flames of worry”. “Shares off their worst levels, but be careful you don’t get burnt.”
• http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/336929/persimmon-pummelled-despite-good-numbers

Business Insider

• Michael van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, agrees, saying he expects “details about how it plans to ease the capital burden on banks, to keep financing alive for businesses and households and the economic consumer and business confidence ball up in the air.
• http://uk.businessinsider.com/bank-of-england-july-financial-stability-report-brexit-eu-referendum-2016-7

4 Jul

Telegraph 

• Mike van Dulken, of Accendo Markets, said: “Equity markets have lost  momentum as we enter the second full week following the UK referendum, trading relatively flat. Conviction is lacking on account of our stateside cousins’ absence for their 4th July holiday, meaning we may have to wait for tomorrow to gauge the underlying tone among global investors. “Asia made for a solid start to the week, and while the UK remains in political upheaval (UKIP’s Farage just resigned by the way) the UK Index ‘s drivers now include a mix of safe havens and risk as banks and miners begin to offer some help, although  names linked to property remain troubled. The  UK 100  has broken its 6-day trend of rising lows at 6600, but remains above 6550, keeping the door open for further gains.”
• http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/04/UK Index -100-set-to-open-higher-as-pound-and-asian-markets-strengthe/