24 Jun

Telegraph

• Mike van Dulken, of Accendo Markets, said: “Based on the banks having been the best performers over the last week (gains of up to 18pc) we expect the sector to be the worst performer by a considerable margin, given their implied Brexit sensitivity.”

  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/24/barclays-plunges-26pc-as-40bn-wiped-off-the-value-of-british-ban/

CityWire

• Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, said that while shares were ‘well off their worst levels’, it would be ‘careless not to entertain the possibility this is merely a dead-cat bounce as the dust settles’
• http://citywire.co.uk/money/UK Index -and-pound-plunge-as-uk-votes-for-brexit/a925133

23 Jun

Int. Bus Times

• His concerns were echoed by Michael Van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets. “Following a one-week rally on hopes that the campaign tide had turned back towards Remain, we expect the hardest hit stocks to be financials followed by housebuilders, with commodities related-names following close behind,” he said.

  http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/brexit-markets-braced-rout-uk-votes-leave-european-union-1567188

Telegraph

• Mike van Dulken, of Accendo Markets, said: “Calls for a positive European open follow a cautiously mixed session in Asia which is in contrast to a negative US finish that comes as UK voters decide whether to stay in the European Union. Overnight polls still suggest the result could be very close although a late tilt towards Remain has helped bolster bullish sentiment in early trading on the hope that the status quo is maintained and an uncertain outlook will not prevail.” 
• http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/23/UK Index -100-breaks-6300-and-pound-hits-2016-high-as-brexit-vote-get/

Reuters

• “Overnight polls still suggest the result could be very close although a late tilt towards Remain has helped bolster bullish sentiment on the hope the status quo is maintained and an uncertain outlook will not prevail,” Mike van Dulken and Augustin Eden at Accendo Markets, said.
• http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks-idUKKCN0Z90S5

22 Jun

Telegraph

• Mike van Dulken says miners are missing out on ordinarily positive currency benefits as well as a supposed perception of reduced ‘event-risk’ on economic growth, which as he points out makes it a ‘bad day at the coal face’. “Some of today’s weakness may be attributed to simple digestion of two days of strong gains and that sharp turnaround in market sentiment,” van Dulken said in a note. “The balance could relate to Brexit polls still delivering mixed messages, ensuring the referendum result remains too close to call.”

  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/22/investors-cautious-optimism-wipes-73bn-back-on-UK Index -100-in-four/

Marketwatch

• Mike van Dulken, of Accendo Markets, said: “A positive European open comes in spite of a mixed session in Asia which has come back from steeper overnight declines, and follows a positive US close. Markets appear to be fighting to maintain bullish momentum in the run-up to tomorrow’s UK referendum despite heightened uncertainty as to the outcome.” 
•  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/UK Index -100-notches-thin-gain-with-1-day-to-brexit-vote-2016-06-22

Digital Look

• Overnight, US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told the Senate that a rate rise could be “appropriate in the coming months”. “But Yellen has said ‘rate hike in the coming months’ since the turn of the year,” observed Mike Van Dulken of Accendo Markets. “And in aggregate she took a rather cautious tone. Note also that while she said a Brexit vote might not result in a US recession, ECB President Draghi said he is prepared for all eventualities come Friday.”
• http://www.digitallook.com/news/market-report-opening/london-open-housebuilders-lead-UK Index -higher-on-brexit-confidence–1218893.html

21 Jun

Proactive Investors

• ‘Miners are missing out not just on their usual currency benefit but also from a perception of reduced event risk on economic growth and thus demand for materials,’ said Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets. ‘Some of today’s falls may be attributed to the digestion of two days of strong gains and that sharp turnaround in market sentiment.’

  http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/market_reports/127322/UK Index -100-starts-on-back-foot-as-brexit-vote-looms-127322.html

CityWire

•  Mike van Dulken, of Accendo Markets, said: “A negative European open comes in spite of another positive session for Asia which rose on the back of gains by stateside bourses. This comes as a pair of overnight Brexit polls add another dollop of spice to the referendum build-up with conflicting results about which camp is leading. This vote looks very likely to go right down to the wire. Prepare yourselves for a very long night! There is also talk of another terrorism alert in Brussels this morning.” 
• http://citywire.co.uk/money/investors-turn-to-coffee-as-remain-rally-loses-steam/a923741

Telegraph

• “Oil prices remain on a charge from their recent lows,” Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, said. “The main driver is US dollar weakness as well as renewed hopes that a UK vote to stay in the EU will help maintain gradual global economic recovery and eventual rebalancing of the oil market.”
• http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/21/UK Index -100-rally-loses-steam-but-pound-hits-seven-week-high-as-bre/

20 Jun

This is Money

• Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, said: ‘A positive European open comes as weekend Brexit polls (and bookies’ odds) suggest the Remain campaign regaining some lost ground and in some cases re-taken the lead ahead of Thursday’s UK referendum vote on EU membership. ‘A higher chance of the UK voting to stay is a relief for markets (equities and the pound sterling) that had been preparing themselves for a Leave vote and the uncertainty it could inflict from both a financial, economic and political standpoint.’

• http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3650077/UK Index -LIVE-Footsie-pound-jump-ahead-EU-referendum-vote.html

News.Markets

• Overall though the  UK 100  has jumped more than 2% or 132.22 points to 6153.31 with financial groups and housebuilders – which had been hit hard by fears of Brexit – among the leading risers. Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, said:

  UK financials and property are outperforming this morning on the back of weekend Brexit polls showing a shift back in favour of Remain. This has resulted in a surge in buying interest for the pound sterling and a relief rally for battered financials (banks, insurance) and housebuilders as investors price in a lower probability of event-risk attached to a UK exit from the European Union. Polls last week suggested the Leave camp taking an increasing lead which sent the currency and UK equities significantly lower given the more uncertain outlook

  The weekend news has thus served as a starting pistol for investors to wade in and start bargain hunting, re-fuelling hopes that the status quo will prevail. And while last Thursday’s tragic murder of Jo Cox look is being singled out as a turning point in the campaign, note some of the aforementioned poll data was taken before the MPs death. This suggests the swing in opinion may not simply be one of sympathy. It could be a combination of this and voter fatigue with the electorate tiring of an increasingly ugly debate.

• https://www.theguardian.com/business/marketforceslive/2016/jun/20/UK Index -soars-as-remain-campaign-recovers-but-gold-and-silver-miners-slide?CMP=share_btn_tw

CityAM

• “Oil prices remain on a charge from their recent lows,” Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, said. “The main driver is US dollar weakness as well as renewed hopes that a UK vote to stay in the EU will help maintain gradual global economic recovery and eventual rebalancing of the oil market.”
• http://www.cityam.com/243679/brent-crude-wti-oil-prices-back-above-50-brexit-fears-subside-polls-remain