This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
Trade Parameters
Technical Observations – For
Technical Observations – Against
Rising oil prices amid a tight supply market (helped by coordinated supply cuts, Iran sanctions) are supportive. In late July, CEO McDade said moving forward with oil prospecting and pipeline project in Uganda, aiming for sanctioning of the 200K barrels per day project towards year-end. Shares rose 3% on 25 July thanks to H1 results.
Risks to Tullow shares include a drop in oil prices, problems getting projects approval for projects, issues with political instability in certain regions, delays in executing current projects and, of course, broker downgrades.
Consensus is positive with 82% of brokers saying Buy or Hold, and only 18% saying Sell. This is backed up by 65% of analysts suggesting upside from current levels to a 12-month target price of 252p in-line with late-June highs. The current bounce could encourage broker upgrades, with targets closer to our goal of revisiting May highs.
Next Event: November Trading Update, 15 Nov;
Latest Broker 12-Month Consensus: 36% Buy, 46% Hold, 18% Sell (full breakdown on request)
Source: DowJones Newswires, Reuters News, Bloomberg or Company Press releases
| Share | 1wk | 1m | 3m | 6m | 1yr | 2yr | 3yr | 4yr | 5yr |
| Perf % | 3.3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 25.8 | 33.5 | 35.3 | 20.2 | -62.2 | -73.6 |
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Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research