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Trade the UK Index ? Watch this sector next week

While many will have their eyes on the UK Banks’ full year results next week, there are three names reporting next week – from a sector maybe even more important to the UK 100 recovery than Banks – that some traders may have overlooked.

Two of the three companies are in the top three UK 100 contributors so far this year, while the wider sector has provided over a third of all positive contributions to the blue chip index in 2018.

These companies are from the mining sector, and if you trade the UK Index , you should be watching the results from BHP Billiton, Glencore and Anglo American.


On Tuesday, BHP Billiton (BLT), the UK 100 ‘s greatest single contributor so far this year, releases its half-year earnings. As of Friday morning, Billiton was trading 4.7% higher YTD for a 2018 UK Index contribution of almost 15 points, helped by a 12% rally from 2018 lows to this week’s highs, although still has room to improve as it remains 3.9% from this year’s highs.

So far this year, both Q1 and H1 production figures have not been well received, falling 1.8% and 0.8% respectively. Furthermore, a year ago the company’s shares rallied 0.4%, however two years ago the company’s shares fell a distressing 6.0%.

A similar performance next Tuesday could put the UK Index ‘s current recovery rally in jeopardy. Bucking the trend, however, could help the index continue its recovery.

Glencore (GLEN) follows suit on Wednesday. As the only miner of the three to trade in negative territory YTD, the company is in need of a pick-me-up to challenge its peers.

However it could be much worse for the dual-listed South African miner. Its shares rallied over 10% from their 2018 lows to this week’s highs, being helped higher by a spike in the South African Rand after President Zuma resigned on Wednesday.

While South African politics may not be in the company’s FY results on Wednesday, it is likely that the impact of production on the figures will. Shares dropped 1% on 1 February after its FY production release. However, some traders may take heart from the fact that shares rallied 1.7% a year ago after a 3%, 2% and 0.5% fall after HY Results, Q3 and FY production, respectively.

Will it be deja vu for one of the UK 100 ‘s most traded stocks?

Finally, Anglo American (AAL) provides its full year results on Thursday. The contributor of the third most UK 100 points year-to-date (behind BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto), an impressive recovery of as much as 11.5% from 2018 lows has taken place, although once again a further 3.9% remains to return to its 2018 high.

Shares rallied 3.2% after the company’s HY results in July, while both Q3 and Q4 production releases were also met positively in October and January respectively. Will Anglo be able to continue the positivity when it announces FY figures?


With so many UK 100 heavyweights reporting next week – including Banks, Miners and a major Oiler – your future self will thank you for having a reliable and timely information resource available. Never fear, for our award-winning research team provide just that with their Breakfast Buffet, and you can try it out for yourself by signing up here to have it delivered directly to your inbox every morning.


Daniel Masters, Trader, 16 February 2018


 

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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