And so another trading year closes. An exciting one to say the least, getting better acquainted with President Trump (and his twitter account), watching UK and EU Brexit negotiators duel, more political in-fighting than you could shake a stick at in Westminster. All the while financial market records were being made almost daily. Equity markets pretty much ignored the ample geopolitical thrills and spills, especially in the US and Continental Europe, carrying on a trend that began in early 2016. Thick skinned investors have shown their nerve helped by still generous central bank policy, which was great for those in shares, less so for those in search of volatility, which plumbed its own record lows.

UK blue-chip (UK 100) winners this year include NMC Health (+86%; strong profits, outlook, weak GBP), Worldpay (+61%; being acquired), Persimmon (+54%; strong UK housing markets, government initiatives), Berkeley Group (+50%; strong London Housing markets) and Intertek (+49%; strong results, positive outlook. This compares to a UK 100 index up just shy of 7% for the year, well behind the French CAC which gains nearly 10%, the German DAX up almost 13% and US indices up 20-30%. While doomsayers point to the UK UK Index ’s underperformance as a sign of Brexit worries, note the up a very respectable 14% for the year, suggesting said fears are not necessarily the case.

But what about the stocks that bounced most from their 2017 lows? NMC, WorldPay and Persimmon feature again, +86%, +61% and +57%, respectively. NMC and Persimmon have both been on the rise all year while Worldpay dipped in Feb before a summer bid sent its shares rocketing. The other bouncers included Anglo American (+62%), adding to last year’s winning 287% gain, and easyJet (+59%), benefiting from the woes of its peers.

UK 100 losers this year include comprise Centrica (-41%; uncertain outlook), BT (-27%; losing its stranglehold?), WPP (-26%) and ITV (-20%) both under pressure from advertising revenues and Shire (-17%; drug issues, waning M&A attraction).

But again, what about the stock that have fallen most from their highs, delivering even bigger moves? Much like the winners, the first three figure again, but so too do Mediclinic International and National Grid, both -16%, the former on less exciting prospects that peer NMC and the latter on US exposure, a stronger GBP/weaker USD and potential pain from Trump protectionism.

Another interesting observation is that NMC was also up 83% in both 2015 and 2016, while Mediclinic fell 30% last year. On the one this confirms that the trend can indeed be your friend, on the other hand it dispels the assumption that one year’s winners/losers can reverse course the next. It also shows how performance can vary between sector players.

Before I sign off, looking forward to another exciting 2018 for trading , on behalf of the Accendo Markets team I would like to thank all our clients for trading with us in 2017 and look forward to helping you do so again next year. We are always looking to improve the service – especially here in research – so please don’t be shy in sending in your suggestions for what we can do to help you trade better in 2018.

As for those reading this newsletter who are not already receiving our research, consider this a late Christmas present. Get access here and see what you’ve been missing. We know you won’t regret it.

All my best very wishes to you and yours, and may 2018 by a very profitable one.

Mike van Dulken, Head of Research, 29 Dec 2017