Mike van Dulken, Head of Research at Accendo Markets, commented:

Aviva’s interim results tomorrow are likely to show operating profits down 10% to £1bn, dented by weather-related claims. However, focus may be on updates regarding the restructuring process launched last month by interim executive John McFarlane. Income investors will be hoping the 10p interim dividend is maintained. This stems from comments from McFarlane that Aviva was “trying to maintain it” amid a restructuring plan to boost returns after poor long-term share price performance. The process was kicked off after investors voted against CEO Moss’ pay package, sealing his departure. Some feared that the dividend (circa 26p; 10p interim and 16p final; circa 8.4% yield) would be cut with a focus on disposing of non-core business and boosting capital levels, and helping the share price recover. Updates on the recently reported unsolicited approaches for its US Life (Aviva US) operations will be of interest – having paid £1.8bn for the unit in 2006, the sale may only recover £1bn, implying a £800m write-down. Details may however be thin on the ground with little time having passed since the restructuring plan was announced. Peer Legal & General has already set the bar with H1 operating profits +5% to £518m, profits +14%, and an 18% increase in interim dividend. Prudential reports on Aug 10.

After rallying from lows of 250p in early June, and regaining 2yr support at 275p, Aviva shares are now close to a previously supportive rising trendline (Oct-May 2011) which may now revert to resistance at 320p, slowing up any attempts to push higher. CFD &  Spread Betting traders may be now be looking for interim results to provide a catalyst for either a break above this trendline and run towards Oct-Mar highs of 380p or a correction back to 2-month rising lows around 270p.